Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, its largest open-weight model to date with 1M-token context and competitive benchmark scores against Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, has set trader expectations for a swift follow-up. As of mid-September 2026, no K4 announcement or model card exists; the latest update is the September 11 K2.8 Preview coding variant that routes some K3 traffic for efficiency. Recent reporting indicates Moonshot is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, while facing scrutiny over alleged Claude distillation and internal rumors. Traders are monitoring official API updates, weight releases, or developer conference signals through year-end, noting that typical frontier-model cycles and compute constraints could delay public availability beyond October or even December 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$17,843 交易量
2026-10-31
2026 年 10 月 31 日
4%
2026年12月31日
8%
$17,843 交易量
2026 年 10 月 31 日
$9,518 交易量
4%
2026年12月31日
$8,325 交易量
8%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, its largest open-weight model to date with 1M-token context and competitive benchmark scores against Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, has set trader expectations for a swift follow-up. As of mid-September 2026, no K4 announcement or model card exists; the latest update is the September 11 K2.8 Preview coding variant that routes some K3 traffic for efficiency. Recent reporting indicates Moonshot is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, while facing scrutiny over alleged Claude distillation and internal rumors. Traders are monitoring official API updates, weight releases, or developer conference signals through year-end, noting that typical frontier-model cycles and compute constraints could delay public availability beyond October or even December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$17,843結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, its largest open-weight model to date with 1M-token context and competitive benchmark scores against Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, has set trader expectations for a swift follow-up. As of mid-September 2026, no K4 announcement or model card exists; the latest update is the September 11 K2.8 Preview coding variant that routes some K3 traffic for efficiency. Recent reporting indicates Moonshot is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, while facing scrutiny over alleged Claude distillation and internal rumors. Traders are monitoring official API updates, weight releases, or developer conference signals through year-end, noting that typical frontier-model cycles and compute constraints could delay public availability beyond October or even December 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$17,843結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETMoonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, its largest open-weight model to date with 1M-token context and competitive benchmark scores against Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, has set trader expectations for a swift follow-up. As of mid-September 2026, no K4 announcement or model card exists; the latest update is the September 11 K2.8 Preview coding variant that routes some K3 traffic for efficiency. Recent reporting indicates Moonshot is procuring additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor, while facing scrutiny over alleged Claude distillation and internal rumors. Traders are monitoring official API updates, weight releases, or developer conference signals through year-end, noting that typical frontier-model cycles and compute constraints could delay public availability beyond October or even December 2026.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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