xAI confirmed Grok 5 training in its January 2026 funding round on the expanded Colossus cluster, but repeated Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped without a release. The company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August 2026 as rapid intermediate steps, while Musk referenced an end-of-2026 launch incorporating SpaceX data during recent earnings remarks. Traders on Polymarket have priced December 31 as the leading outcome around 63-70% implied probability, reflecting skepticism from prior delays and xAI’s focus on scaling infrastructure and agentic capabilities amid competition from OpenAI and Anthropic flagships. No model card or benchmarks have emerged yet.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-08-31
8月31日
<1%
10 月 31 日
18%
11月30日
21%
12月31日
70%
$8,565 交易量
8月31日
$3,541 交易量
<1%
10 月 31 日
$1,769 交易量
18%
11月30日
$21 交易量
21%
12月31日
$1,711 交易量
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI confirmed Grok 5 training in its January 2026 funding round on the expanded Colossus cluster, but repeated Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped without a release. The company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August 2026 as rapid intermediate steps, while Musk referenced an end-of-2026 launch incorporating SpaceX data during recent earnings remarks. Traders on Polymarket have priced December 31 as the leading outcome around 63-70% implied probability, reflecting skepticism from prior delays and xAI’s focus on scaling infrastructure and agentic capabilities amid competition from OpenAI and Anthropic flagships. No model card or benchmarks have emerged yet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
交易量
$8,565結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI confirmed Grok 5 training in its January 2026 funding round on the expanded Colossus cluster, but repeated Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped without a release. The company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August 2026 as rapid intermediate steps, while Musk referenced an end-of-2026 launch incorporating SpaceX data during recent earnings remarks. Traders on Polymarket have priced December 31 as the leading outcome around 63-70% implied probability, reflecting skepticism from prior delays and xAI’s focus on scaling infrastructure and agentic capabilities amid competition from OpenAI and Anthropic flagships. No model card or benchmarks have emerged yet.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$8,565結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETxAI confirmed Grok 5 training in its January 2026 funding round on the expanded Colossus cluster, but repeated Q1 and Q2 2026 targets slipped without a release. The company instead shipped Grok 4.5 in July and 4.6 in August 2026 as rapid intermediate steps, while Musk referenced an end-of-2026 launch incorporating SpaceX data during recent earnings remarks. Traders on Polymarket have priced December 31 as the leading outcome around 63-70% implied probability, reflecting skepticism from prior delays and xAI’s focus on scaling infrastructure and agentic capabilities amid competition from OpenAI and Anthropic flagships. No model card or benchmarks have emerged yet.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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