Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026, with xAI (now integrated under SpaceX AI) missing successive targets of late 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 while the model continues training on the expanded Colossus supercluster. Traders have responded to these repeated slips and the August 2026 confirmation of a year-end goal by shifting focus to an end-of-year resolution window, amid interim releases such as Grok 4.5 and 4.6 that demonstrate ongoing progress on coding and agentic capabilities but do not fulfill the flagship milestone. Key variables include compute scaling timelines, integration of SpaceX engineering data, and competition from contemporaneous frontier models, all of which continue to shape market-implied odds around the final 2026 deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-08-31
8月31日
<1%
10 月 31 日
32%
11月30日
50%
12月31日
70%
$6,580 交易量
8月31日
$3,006 交易量
<1%
10 月 31 日
$340 交易量
32%
11月30日
$0 交易量
50%
12月31日
$1,711 交易量
70%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026, with xAI (now integrated under SpaceX AI) missing successive targets of late 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 while the model continues training on the expanded Colossus supercluster. Traders have responded to these repeated slips and the August 2026 confirmation of a year-end goal by shifting focus to an end-of-year resolution window, amid interim releases such as Grok 4.5 and 4.6 that demonstrate ongoing progress on coding and agentic capabilities but do not fulfill the flagship milestone. Key variables include compute scaling timelines, integration of SpaceX engineering data, and competition from contemporaneous frontier models, all of which continue to shape market-implied odds around the final 2026 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
交易量
$6,580結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026, with xAI (now integrated under SpaceX AI) missing successive targets of late 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 while the model continues training on the expanded Colossus supercluster. Traders have responded to these repeated slips and the August 2026 confirmation of a year-end goal by shifting focus to an end-of-year resolution window, amid interim releases such as Grok 4.5 and 4.6 that demonstrate ongoing progress on coding and agentic capabilities but do not fulfill the flagship milestone. Key variables include compute scaling timelines, integration of SpaceX engineering data, and competition from contemporaneous frontier models, all of which continue to shape market-implied odds around the final 2026 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,580結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 10, 2026, 6:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Grok 5 remains unreleased as of late August 2026, with xAI (now integrated under SpaceX AI) missing successive targets of late 2025, Q1 2026, and Q2 2026 while the model continues training on the expanded Colossus supercluster. Traders have responded to these repeated slips and the August 2026 confirmation of a year-end goal by shifting focus to an end-of-year resolution window, amid interim releases such as Grok 4.5 and 4.6 that demonstrate ongoing progress on coding and agentic capabilities but do not fulfill the flagship milestone. Key variables include compute scaling timelines, integration of SpaceX engineering data, and competition from contemporaneous frontier models, all of which continue to shape market-implied odds around the final 2026 deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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