Recent polling from the University of Houston Hobby School shows Ken Paxton holding a narrow 48-45 percent lead over incumbent John Cornyn among likely Republican primary runoff voters, with 7 percent undecided, keeping the May 26 contest highly competitive. This tight margin, following a March primary where roughly 2.2 million Republicans participated, has sustained interest among core voters and is positioning total turnout most likely in the 1.2–1.5 million range. Early voting runs May 18–22, with mail ballot and registration deadlines already passed, creating a compressed window that typically compresses participation relative to the initial primary but rewards high mobilization in battleground Republican areas. Traders are pricing in these dynamics, with modest probabilities also assigned to the adjacent 0.9–1.2 million and 1.5–1.8 million brackets, reflecting uncertainty over final weekend turnout and any last-minute campaign efforts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於120萬–150萬 26.4%
90萬–120萬 19%
180萬–210萬 17.7%
60萬–90萬 11%
$89,047 交易量
$89,047 交易量
<0.6M
3%
60萬–90萬
11%
90萬–120萬
19%
120萬–150萬
35%
150萬–180萬
10%
180萬–210萬
18%
210萬–240萬
1%
240萬–270萬
<1%
270萬以上
1%
120萬–150萬 26.4%
90萬–120萬 19%
180萬–210萬 17.7%
60萬–90萬 11%
$89,047 交易量
$89,047 交易量
<0.6M
3%
60萬–90萬
11%
90萬–120萬
19%
120萬–150萬
35%
150萬–180萬
10%
180萬–210萬
18%
210萬–240萬
1%
240萬–270萬
<1%
270萬以上
1%
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
市場開放時間： Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from the University of Houston Hobby School shows Ken Paxton holding a narrow 48-45 percent lead over incumbent John Cornyn among likely Republican primary runoff voters, with 7 percent undecided, keeping the May 26 contest highly competitive. This tight margin, following a March primary where roughly 2.2 million Republicans participated, has sustained interest among core voters and is positioning total turnout most likely in the 1.2–1.5 million range. Early voting runs May 18–22, with mail ballot and registration deadlines already passed, creating a compressed window that typically compresses participation relative to the initial primary but rewards high mobilization in battleground Republican areas. Traders are pricing in these dynamics, with modest probabilities also assigned to the adjacent 0.9–1.2 million and 1.5–1.8 million brackets, reflecting uncertainty over final weekend turnout and any last-minute campaign efforts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions