Skip to main content
icon for What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?
Economy·Housing

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?

icon for What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?
Economy·Housing

What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?

9月 30

9月 30

<$1.176M 100%

$1.176M - $1.198M 100%

$1.198M - $1.220M 100%

$1.242M - $1.264M 100%

Polymarket
最新

<$1.176M 100%

$1.176M - $1.198M 100%

$1.198M - $1.220M 100%

$1.242M - $1.264M 100%

Polymarket
最新

<$1.176M

$0 交易量

100%

$1.176M - $1.198M

$0 交易量

100%

$1.198M - $1.220M

$0 交易量

100%

$1.220M - $1.242M

$0 交易量

50%

$1.242M - $1.264M

$0 交易量

100%

$1.264M - $1.284M

$0 交易量

100%

$1.284M+

$0 交易量

100%

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent trader positioning around San Francisco Metro median home values reflects balanced uncertainty driven by the interplay between AI-related wealth creation in the tech sector and elevated mortgage rates near 6%. Latest Zillow and Redfin data through May 2026 show typical values near $1.39 million and median sale prices around $1.7 million, with year-over-year gains of 7-16% in select segments amid low inventory and faster sales velocity. However, broader Bay Area figures near $1.17 million and mixed county-level trends highlight sensitivity to labor market softening and interest-rate path expectations. Key swing factors through September include upcoming FOMC communications, regional employment reports, and any shifts in housing supply or buyer demand from IPO activity. Market-implied odds near 50% across bins underscore the narrow range of plausible outcomes absent decisive new catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-09-30
市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)Recent trader positioning around San Francisco Metro median home values reflects balanced uncertainty driven by the interplay between AI-related wealth creation in the tech sector and elevated mortgage rates near 6%. Latest Zillow and Redfin data through May 2026 show typical values near $1.39 million and median sale prices around $1.7 million, with year-over-year gains of 7-16% in select segments amid low inventory and faster sales velocity. However, broader Bay Area figures near $1.17 million and mixed county-level trends highlight sensitivity to labor market softening and interest-rate path expectations. Key swing factors through September include upcoming FOMC communications, regional employment reports, and any shifts in housing supply or buyer demand from IPO activity. Market-implied odds near 50% across bins underscore the narrow range of plausible outcomes absent decisive new catalysts.

This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-09-30
市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 3:57 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on September 30, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on September 30, 2026. If no data for September 30 is released by October 10, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/52)

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<$1.176M" at 50%, followed by "$1.176M - $1.198M" at 50%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 50¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?" is "<$1.176M" at 50%, meaning the market assigns a 50% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$1.176M - $1.198M" at 50%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will the median home value in the San Francisco Metro area be on September 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.