Diplomatic tensions with Israel have persisted amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza and recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, yet few governments have moved beyond recalling their own envoys or issuing public criticism. South Africa's January 2026 expulsion of Israel's deputy ambassador over social media disputes stands as the most recent verified case, while Spain's March 2026 withdrawal of its own ambassador to Tel Aviv reflects opposition to Israeli policy without reciprocal action against Israel's representative. Calls from opposition figures in the United Kingdom and France for expulsions have not translated into government decisions, and major trading partners continue standard diplomatic engagement. With limited new triggers in the past month and historical patterns showing most states preferring targeted sanctions or statements over full ambassador expulsions, traders assign a 61% implied probability that no additional country will take this step by December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$28,988 交易量
$28,988 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$28,988 交易量
$28,988 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions with Israel have persisted amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza and recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, yet few governments have moved beyond recalling their own envoys or issuing public criticism. South Africa's January 2026 expulsion of Israel's deputy ambassador over social media disputes stands as the most recent verified case, while Spain's March 2026 withdrawal of its own ambassador to Tel Aviv reflects opposition to Israeli policy without reciprocal action against Israel's representative. Calls from opposition figures in the United Kingdom and France for expulsions have not translated into government decisions, and major trading partners continue standard diplomatic engagement. With limited new triggers in the past month and historical patterns showing most states preferring targeted sanctions or statements over full ambassador expulsions, traders assign a 61% implied probability that no additional country will take this step by December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ET
交易量
$28,988結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Diplomatic tensions with Israel have persisted amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza and recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, yet few governments have moved beyond recalling their own envoys or issuing public criticism. South Africa's January 2026 expulsion of Israel's deputy ambassador over social media disputes stands as the most recent verified case, while Spain's March 2026 withdrawal of its own ambassador to Tel Aviv reflects opposition to Israeli policy without reciprocal action against Israel's representative. Calls from opposition figures in the United Kingdom and France for expulsions have not translated into government decisions, and major trading partners continue standard diplomatic engagement. With limited new triggers in the past month and historical patterns showing most states preferring targeted sanctions or statements over full ambassador expulsions, traders assign a 61% implied probability that no additional country will take this step by December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify.
For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe.
Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity.
Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$28,988結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 3:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic tensions with Israel have persisted amid ongoing conflicts in Gaza and recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran, yet few governments have moved beyond recalling their own envoys or issuing public criticism. South Africa's January 2026 expulsion of Israel's deputy ambassador over social media disputes stands as the most recent verified case, while Spain's March 2026 withdrawal of its own ambassador to Tel Aviv reflects opposition to Israeli policy without reciprocal action against Israel's representative. Calls from opposition figures in the United Kingdom and France for expulsions have not translated into government decisions, and major trading partners continue standard diplomatic engagement. With limited new triggers in the past month and historical patterns showing most states preferring targeted sanctions or statements over full ambassador expulsions, traders assign a 61% implied probability that no additional country will take this step by December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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