Ongoing military conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran since late February 2026, including sustained strikes, leadership losses in Tehran, and repeated breakdowns in ceasefires over issues such as the Strait of Hormuz blockade, has eliminated prospects for bilateral diplomatic normalization. No official channels or normalization signals have emerged amid active hostilities and proxy tensions extending into August. Trader consensus at 96.7% against an embassy reopening this year reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any verifiable de-escalation pathway. Late-year shifts remain possible only through an unanticipated comprehensive agreement, major leadership transition in Iran, or external mediation producing formal ties before December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
$193,377 交易量
$193,377 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
$193,377 交易量
$193,377 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing military conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran since late February 2026, including sustained strikes, leadership losses in Tehran, and repeated breakdowns in ceasefires over issues such as the Strait of Hormuz blockade, has eliminated prospects for bilateral diplomatic normalization. No official channels or normalization signals have emerged amid active hostilities and proxy tensions extending into August. Trader consensus at 96.7% against an embassy reopening this year reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any verifiable de-escalation pathway. Late-year shifts remain possible only through an unanticipated comprehensive agreement, major leadership transition in Iran, or external mediation producing formal ties before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
交易量
$193,377結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing military conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran since late February 2026, including sustained strikes, leadership losses in Tehran, and repeated breakdowns in ceasefires over issues such as the Strait of Hormuz blockade, has eliminated prospects for bilateral diplomatic normalization. No official channels or normalization signals have emerged amid active hostilities and proxy tensions extending into August. Trader consensus at 96.7% against an embassy reopening this year reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any verifiable de-escalation pathway. Late-year shifts remain possible only through an unanticipated comprehensive agreement, major leadership transition in Iran, or external mediation producing formal ties before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Israeli government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of an Israeli embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$193,377結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military conflict between Israel, the United States, and Iran since late February 2026, including sustained strikes, leadership losses in Tehran, and repeated breakdowns in ceasefires over issues such as the Strait of Hormuz blockade, has eliminated prospects for bilateral diplomatic normalization. No official channels or normalization signals have emerged amid active hostilities and proxy tensions extending into August. Trader consensus at 96.7% against an embassy reopening this year reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any verifiable de-escalation pathway. Late-year shifts remain possible only through an unanticipated comprehensive agreement, major leadership transition in Iran, or external mediation producing formal ties before December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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