The market-implied probability heavily favoring Avengers: Doomsday reflects the MCU franchise’s consistent history of massive opening weekends, often exceeding $200 million domestically, driven by broad mainstream appeal and extensive marketing campaigns. Dune films, while critically acclaimed and successful overall, have posted more modest debuts around $80-100 million, appealing primarily to a dedicated sci-fi audience rather than achieving the same crossover event status. Recent trailer releases and casting announcements have further reinforced expectations for strong pre-sale tracking on the Avengers side ahead of its 2026 release window. Traders see limited realistic upset paths for Dune 3 unless unexpected delays or negative buzz emerge, though late shifts in audience sentiment or competing releases could still narrow the gap.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於《沙丘3》或《復仇者聯盟：世界末日》在開幕週末會變得更噁心嗎？
《沙丘3》或《復仇者聯盟：世界末日》在開幕週末會變得更噁心嗎？
沙丘3
$38,573 交易量
$38,573 交易量
2026-12-20
沙丘3
$38,573 交易量
$38,573 交易量
2026-12-20
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.The market-implied probability heavily favoring Avengers: Doomsday reflects the MCU franchise’s consistent history of massive opening weekends, often exceeding $200 million domestically, driven by broad mainstream appeal and extensive marketing campaigns. Dune films, while critically acclaimed and successful overall, have posted more modest debuts around $80-100 million, appealing primarily to a dedicated sci-fi audience rather than achieving the same crossover event status. Recent trailer releases and casting announcements have further reinforced expectations for strong pre-sale tracking on the Avengers side ahead of its 2026 release window. Traders see limited realistic upset paths for Dune 3 unless unexpected delays or negative buzz emerge, though late shifts in audience sentiment or competing releases could still narrow the gap.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
市場開放時間： Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
交易量
$38,573結束日期
2026-12-20市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.The market-implied probability heavily favoring Avengers: Doomsday reflects the MCU franchise’s consistent history of massive opening weekends, often exceeding $200 million domestically, driven by broad mainstream appeal and extensive marketing campaigns. Dune films, while critically acclaimed and successful overall, have posted more modest debuts around $80-100 million, appealing primarily to a dedicated sci-fi audience rather than achieving the same crossover event status. Recent trailer releases and casting announcements have further reinforced expectations for strong pre-sale tracking on the Avengers side ahead of its 2026 release window. Traders see limited realistic upset paths for Dune 3 unless unexpected delays or negative buzz emerge, though late shifts in audience sentiment or competing releases could still narrow the gap.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
交易量
$38,573結束日期
2026-12-20市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The market-implied probability heavily favoring Avengers: Doomsday reflects the MCU franchise’s consistent history of massive opening weekends, often exceeding $200 million domestically, driven by broad mainstream appeal and extensive marketing campaigns. Dune films, while critically acclaimed and successful overall, have posted more modest debuts around $80-100 million, appealing primarily to a dedicated sci-fi audience rather than achieving the same crossover event status. Recent trailer releases and casting announcements have further reinforced expectations for strong pre-sale tracking on the Avengers side ahead of its 2026 release window. Traders see limited realistic upset paths for Dune 3 unless unexpected delays or negative buzz emerge, though late shifts in audience sentiment or competing releases could still narrow the gap.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions