Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.3% implied probability due to its record-setting pre-sales momentum and status as a major MCU crossover event reuniting the Avengers against Doctor Doom. Early ticket data shows tens of millions in advance sales across premium formats months ahead of the December 18, 2026, release, with domestic opening projections in the $260–350 million range—far exceeding Dune: Part Three’s franchise benchmarks of $82 million for Part Two and expectations slightly above $100 million. Marvel’s broad mainstream appeal, multiverse stakes, and marketing push contrast with Dune’s more specialized audience, even as the latter secures U.S. IMAX exclusivity. A realistic upset would require Dune to achieve exceptional word-of-mouth and critical scores that dramatically shift holiday audience allocation, though current tracking and historical patterns make this highly improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於《沙丘3》或《復仇者聯盟：世界末日》在開幕週末會變得更噁心嗎？
《沙丘3》或《復仇者聯盟：世界末日》在開幕週末會變得更噁心嗎？
沙丘3
3% 機率
$53,758 交易量
$53,758 交易量
2026-12-19
沙丘3
3% 機率
$53,758 交易量
$53,758 交易量
2026-12-19
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.3% implied probability due to its record-setting pre-sales momentum and status as a major MCU crossover event reuniting the Avengers against Doctor Doom. Early ticket data shows tens of millions in advance sales across premium formats months ahead of the December 18, 2026, release, with domestic opening projections in the $260–350 million range—far exceeding Dune: Part Three’s franchise benchmarks of $82 million for Part Two and expectations slightly above $100 million. Marvel’s broad mainstream appeal, multiverse stakes, and marketing push contrast with Dune’s more specialized audience, even as the latter secures U.S. IMAX exclusivity. A realistic upset would require Dune to achieve exceptional word-of-mouth and critical scores that dramatically shift holiday audience allocation, though current tracking and historical patterns make this highly improbable.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
市場開放時間： Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
交易量
$53,758結束日期
2026-12-20市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETAvengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Avengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.3% implied probability due to its record-setting pre-sales momentum and status as a major MCU crossover event reuniting the Avengers against Doctor Doom. Early ticket data shows tens of millions in advance sales across premium formats months ahead of the December 18, 2026, release, with domestic opening projections in the $260–350 million range—far exceeding Dune: Part Three’s franchise benchmarks of $82 million for Part Two and expectations slightly above $100 million. Marvel’s broad mainstream appeal, multiverse stakes, and marketing push contrast with Dune’s more specialized audience, even as the latter secures U.S. IMAX exclusivity. A realistic upset would require Dune to achieve exceptional word-of-mouth and critical scores that dramatically shift holiday audience allocation, though current tracking and historical patterns make this highly improbable.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
交易量
$53,758結束日期
2026-12-20市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETAvengers: Doomsday commands overwhelming trader consensus at 97.3% implied probability due to its record-setting pre-sales momentum and status as a major MCU crossover event reuniting the Avengers against Doctor Doom. Early ticket data shows tens of millions in advance sales across premium formats months ahead of the December 18, 2026, release, with domestic opening projections in the $260–350 million range—far exceeding Dune: Part Three’s franchise benchmarks of $82 million for Part Two and expectations slightly above $100 million. Marvel’s broad mainstream appeal, multiverse stakes, and marketing push contrast with Dune’s more specialized audience, even as the latter secures U.S. IMAX exclusivity. A realistic upset would require Dune to achieve exceptional word-of-mouth and critical scores that dramatically shift holiday audience allocation, though current tracking and historical patterns make this highly improbable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions