Tesla's Cybercab production ramp has proven slower than initially targeted, with pilot output beginning in February 2026 and volume manufacturing lines still under construction as of the Q2 shareholder update. Tesla removed prior 2026 volume production goals in its July letter, citing the need to scale 4680 battery output and validate Full Self-Driving software on the new chassis before unsupervised operation or customer deliveries can occur. Musk has reaffirmed a sub-$30,000 consumer price target, but emphasized material robotaxi revenue likely starts no earlier than 2027 amid regulatory and data-collection hurdles. These confirmed timeline slips and autonomy prerequisites underpin the 86% market-implied odds against 2026 sales at that price. Key near-term catalysts include Q3 production metrics and any FSD regulatory milestones.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
14% 機率
$47,896 交易量
$47,896 交易量
2026-12-31
是
14% 機率
$47,896 交易量
$47,896 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab production ramp has proven slower than initially targeted, with pilot output beginning in February 2026 and volume manufacturing lines still under construction as of the Q2 shareholder update. Tesla removed prior 2026 volume production goals in its July letter, citing the need to scale 4680 battery output and validate Full Self-Driving software on the new chassis before unsupervised operation or customer deliveries can occur. Musk has reaffirmed a sub-$30,000 consumer price target, but emphasized material robotaxi revenue likely starts no earlier than 2027 amid regulatory and data-collection hurdles. These confirmed timeline slips and autonomy prerequisites underpin the 86% market-implied odds against 2026 sales at that price. Key near-term catalysts include Q3 production metrics and any FSD regulatory milestones.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
交易量
$47,896結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's Cybercab production ramp has proven slower than initially targeted, with pilot output beginning in February 2026 and volume manufacturing lines still under construction as of the Q2 shareholder update. Tesla removed prior 2026 volume production goals in its July letter, citing the need to scale 4680 battery output and validate Full Self-Driving software on the new chassis before unsupervised operation or customer deliveries can occur. Musk has reaffirmed a sub-$30,000 consumer price target, but emphasized material robotaxi revenue likely starts no earlier than 2027 amid regulatory and data-collection hurdles. These confirmed timeline slips and autonomy prerequisites underpin the 86% market-implied odds against 2026 sales at that price. Key near-term catalysts include Q3 production metrics and any FSD regulatory milestones.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$47,896結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's Cybercab production ramp has proven slower than initially targeted, with pilot output beginning in February 2026 and volume manufacturing lines still under construction as of the Q2 shareholder update. Tesla removed prior 2026 volume production goals in its July letter, citing the need to scale 4680 battery output and validate Full Self-Driving software on the new chassis before unsupervised operation or customer deliveries can occur. Musk has reaffirmed a sub-$30,000 consumer price target, but emphasized material robotaxi revenue likely starts no earlier than 2027 amid regulatory and data-collection hurdles. These confirmed timeline slips and autonomy prerequisites underpin the 86% market-implied odds against 2026 sales at that price. Key near-term catalysts include Q3 production metrics and any FSD regulatory milestones.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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