Tesla’s Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas and the September 3, 2026 Austin launch event center on fleet deployment and unsupervised robotaxi operations rather than retail availability, keeping the market-implied probability of a $30,000-or-lower consumer sale in 2026 at just 13 percent. Early builds began in February and volume production started in April, yet output remains limited while Tesla prioritizes its own ride-hailing service using modified Model Y vehicles and initial Cybercab units. Musk has reiterated a sub-$30,000 price target with consumer sales eyed for 2027, and prediction-market rules exclude fleet, employee, or prototype transfers from counting as qualifying retail sales. Key near-term catalysts include regulatory approvals for broader unsupervised operation, production-rate updates, and any post-launch statements clarifying a 2026 direct-to-customer channel.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
13% 機率
$52,639 交易量
$52,639 交易量
2026-12-31
是
13% 機率
$52,639 交易量
$52,639 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas and the September 3, 2026 Austin launch event center on fleet deployment and unsupervised robotaxi operations rather than retail availability, keeping the market-implied probability of a $30,000-or-lower consumer sale in 2026 at just 13 percent. Early builds began in February and volume production started in April, yet output remains limited while Tesla prioritizes its own ride-hailing service using modified Model Y vehicles and initial Cybercab units. Musk has reiterated a sub-$30,000 price target with consumer sales eyed for 2027, and prediction-market rules exclude fleet, employee, or prototype transfers from counting as qualifying retail sales. Key near-term catalysts include regulatory approvals for broader unsupervised operation, production-rate updates, and any post-launch statements clarifying a 2026 direct-to-customer channel.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
交易量
$52,639結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas and the September 3, 2026 Austin launch event center on fleet deployment and unsupervised robotaxi operations rather than retail availability, keeping the market-implied probability of a $30,000-or-lower consumer sale in 2026 at just 13 percent. Early builds began in February and volume production started in April, yet output remains limited while Tesla prioritizes its own ride-hailing service using modified Model Y vehicles and initial Cybercab units. Musk has reiterated a sub-$30,000 price target with consumer sales eyed for 2027, and prediction-market rules exclude fleet, employee, or prototype transfers from counting as qualifying retail sales. Key near-term catalysts include regulatory approvals for broader unsupervised operation, production-rate updates, and any post-launch statements clarifying a 2026 direct-to-customer channel.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$52,639結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETTesla’s Cybercab production ramp at Giga Texas and the September 3, 2026 Austin launch event center on fleet deployment and unsupervised robotaxi operations rather than retail availability, keeping the market-implied probability of a $30,000-or-lower consumer sale in 2026 at just 13 percent. Early builds began in February and volume production started in April, yet output remains limited while Tesla prioritizes its own ride-hailing service using modified Model Y vehicles and initial Cybercab units. Musk has reiterated a sub-$30,000 price target with consumer sales eyed for 2027, and prediction-market rules exclude fleet, employee, or prototype transfers from counting as qualifying retail sales. Key near-term catalysts include regulatory approvals for broader unsupervised operation, production-rate updates, and any post-launch statements clarifying a 2026 direct-to-customer channel.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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