Tesla's own timeline updates have anchored trader sentiment against a 2026 consumer sale at $30,000 or below, with Elon Musk confirming in February 2026 that Cybercab deliveries would begin no earlier than 2027 despite initial 2026 production targets. Early units rolled off the Giga Texas line in February, and volume manufacturing is slated for April, yet full regulatory approval for unsupervised autonomy remains pending in key markets, creating a bottleneck for priced robotaxi sales. Supply-chain scaling for the no-steering-wheel design and historical patterns of Tesla timeline slippage further support the 75% market-implied probability on "No," as traders weigh demonstrated hardware progress against unresolved certification and ramp-up hurdles expected through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$36,019 交易量
$36,019 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$36,019 交易量
$36,019 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's own timeline updates have anchored trader sentiment against a 2026 consumer sale at $30,000 or below, with Elon Musk confirming in February 2026 that Cybercab deliveries would begin no earlier than 2027 despite initial 2026 production targets. Early units rolled off the Giga Texas line in February, and volume manufacturing is slated for April, yet full regulatory approval for unsupervised autonomy remains pending in key markets, creating a bottleneck for priced robotaxi sales. Supply-chain scaling for the no-steering-wheel design and historical patterns of Tesla timeline slippage further support the 75% market-implied probability on "No," as traders weigh demonstrated hardware progress against unresolved certification and ramp-up hurdles expected through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
交易量
$36,019結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla's own timeline updates have anchored trader sentiment against a 2026 consumer sale at $30,000 or below, with Elon Musk confirming in February 2026 that Cybercab deliveries would begin no earlier than 2027 despite initial 2026 production targets. Early units rolled off the Giga Texas line in February, and volume manufacturing is slated for April, yet full regulatory approval for unsupervised autonomy remains pending in key markets, creating a bottleneck for priced robotaxi sales. Supply-chain scaling for the no-steering-wheel design and historical patterns of Tesla timeline slippage further support the 75% market-implied probability on "No," as traders weigh demonstrated hardware progress against unresolved certification and ramp-up hurdles expected through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$36,019結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla's own timeline updates have anchored trader sentiment against a 2026 consumer sale at $30,000 or below, with Elon Musk confirming in February 2026 that Cybercab deliveries would begin no earlier than 2027 despite initial 2026 production targets. Early units rolled off the Giga Texas line in February, and volume manufacturing is slated for April, yet full regulatory approval for unsupervised autonomy remains pending in key markets, creating a bottleneck for priced robotaxi sales. Supply-chain scaling for the no-steering-wheel design and historical patterns of Tesla timeline slippage further support the 75% market-implied probability on "No," as traders weigh demonstrated hardware progress against unresolved certification and ramp-up hurdles expected through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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