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政治·委內瑞拉

美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？

icon for 美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？
政治·委內瑞拉

美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？

是

21% 機率
Polymarket

$2,004,019 交易量

是

21% 機率
Polymarket

$2,004,019 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.U.S. officials have stated that no imminent military action against Cuba is under consideration despite President Trump's repeated threats to target the island after operations in Venezuela and amid ongoing sanctions and intelligence flights. These statements, issued in early May 2026, reinforce trader expectations that economic pressure and diplomatic maneuvering will remain the primary tools rather than a full-scale invasion by December 31. Cuba's government has conducted defense drills and issued warnings of potential casualties, while senators advanced a war powers resolution in April to constrain unauthorized hostilities. With U.S. attention focused on the Iran conflict and no congressional authorization or large-scale deployments evident, the market prices reflect skepticism that rhetorical escalation alone will trigger the threshold for military offensive action in 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$2,004,019
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.U.S. officials have stated that no imminent military action against Cuba is under consideration despite President Trump's repeated threats to target the island after operations in Venezuela and amid ongoing sanctions and intelligence flights. These statements, issued in early May 2026, reinforce trader expectations that economic pressure and diplomatic maneuvering will remain the primary tools rather than a full-scale invasion by December 31. Cuba's government has conducted defense drills and issued warnings of potential casualties, while senators advanced a war powers resolution in April to constrain unauthorized hostilities. With U.S. attention focused on the Iran conflict and no congressional authorization or large-scale deployments evident, the market prices reflect skepticism that rhetorical escalation alone will trigger the threshold for military offensive action in 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
交易量
$2,004,033
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 21¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？" has generated $2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？" is "美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？" at 21%, meaning the market assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美國會在2026年入侵古巴嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.