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icon for 世界盃：第一次被罰還是錯過？
運動·足球

世界盃：第一次被罰還是錯過？

icon for 世界盃：第一次被罰還是錯過？
運動·足球

世界盃：第一次被罰還是錯過？

Made

79% 機率
Polymarket
最新

Made

79% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved. The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The elevated 79% implied probability for the first penalty being made in the 2026 World Cup stems primarily from long-established conversion rates in FIFA tournaments and major international fixtures, where spot-kick success typically lands between 75-82%. Opening-round matchups feature rested squads with experienced set-piece specialists and minimal reported injuries to designated takers, while goalkeepers face added pressure in high-stakes early games. Historical patterns from recent World Cup cycles and continental qualifiers show that first penalties often occur in favorable conditions before fatigue or tactical adjustments alter dynamics, aligning trader consensus with these baseline success rates rather than outlier misses.

This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.

The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,124
結束日期
2026-07-20
市場開放時間
Jun 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved. The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved. The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. The elevated 79% implied probability for the first penalty being made in the 2026 World Cup stems primarily from long-established conversion rates in FIFA tournaments and major international fixtures, where spot-kick success typically lands between 75-82%. Opening-round matchups feature rested squads with experienced set-piece specialists and minimal reported injuries to designated takers, while goalkeepers face added pressure in high-stakes early games. Historical patterns from recent World Cup cycles and continental qualifiers show that first penalties often occur in favorable conditions before fatigue or tactical adjustments alter dynamics, aligning trader consensus with these baseline success rates rather than outlier misses.

This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved.

The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$6,124
結束日期
2026-07-20
市場開放時間
Jun 7, 2026, 12:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Made” if the first penalty kick taken in the 2026 FIFA World Cup is scored. This market will resolve to “Missed” if the first penalty kick taken is missed or saved. The first penalty taken is the earliest penalty kick attempted in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time, in the chronologically earliest match in which a penalty is awarded. Penalty shootout kicks do not count. This market resolves on the outcome of the first penalty taken, regardless of whether or not it is converted. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or no penalty kick is taken in regular time, stoppage time, or extra time during the tournament within that timeframe, this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"世界盃：第一次被罰還是錯過？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed?" at 79%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 79¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"世界盃：第一次被罰還是錯過？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 7, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "世界盃：第一次被罰還是錯過？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "世界盃：第一次被罰還是錯過？" is "World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed?" at 79%, meaning the market assigns a 79% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "世界盃：第一次被罰還是錯過？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.