The official USD/ARS rate currently trades near 1,510–1,535 under the BCRA’s inflation-linked crawling band, which has produced only modest monthly depreciation since the January 2026 regime shift. This controlled pace, combined with the Milei administration’s emphasis on reserve accumulation and a strong peso to anchor disinflation, keeps market-implied odds highest for a year-end print below 1,600 (45.5%) or in the 1,600–1,699 bracket (34.0%). The government’s revised 2027 budget now embeds an end-2026 level near 1,600, while private consensus forecasts cluster around 1,630, reflecting slower-than-expected inflation convergence and tepid GDP growth that limit the scope for faster depreciation. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases and any adjustments to the band’s crawl rate, which could shift probabilities if inflation reaccelerates or reserve pressures intensify.