**Market-implied probabilities for Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate at end-2026 concentrate below 1,700, with the sub-1,600 bracket at 51.0% and 1,600–1,699 at 34.5%.** These levels align with the latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) median near 1,630 and FocusEconomics consensus around 1,645, reflecting a managed crawl consistent with projected year-end inflation near 30% and annual GDP growth of 3–3.5%. The current official mayorista rate near 1,515 supports this path, as the BCRA continues net reserve purchases and maintains fiscal surpluses that limit abrupt adjustments. Wider dispersion in forecasts (1,335–1,850) and a strong peso weighing on manufacturing and construction explain residual probability mass in higher brackets, while the absence of major near-term shocks reinforces trader confidence in contained depreciation through December.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$22,028 交易量
$22,028 交易量
2026-12-30
<1600.00
50%
1600.00–1699.99
35%
1700.00–1799.99
8%
1800.00–1899.99
3%
1900.00–1999.99
29%
2000.00以上
4%
$22,028 交易量
$22,028 交易量
2026-12-30
<1600.00
$2,526 交易量
50%
1600.00–1699.99
$2,030 交易量
35%
1700.00–1799.99
$2,203 交易量
8%
1800.00–1899.99
$1,709 交易量
3%
1900.00–1999.99
$11,772 交易量
29%
2000.00以上
$1,788 交易量
4%
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Market-implied probabilities for Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate at end-2026 concentrate below 1,700, with the sub-1,600 bracket at 51.0% and 1,600–1,699 at 34.5%.** These levels align with the latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) median near 1,630 and FocusEconomics consensus around 1,645, reflecting a managed crawl consistent with projected year-end inflation near 30% and annual GDP growth of 3–3.5%. The current official mayorista rate near 1,515 supports this path, as the BCRA continues net reserve purchases and maintains fiscal surpluses that limit abrupt adjustments. Wider dispersion in forecasts (1,335–1,850) and a strong peso weighing on manufacturing and construction explain residual probability mass in higher brackets, while the absence of major near-term shocks reinforces trader confidence in contained depreciation through December.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
交易量
$22,028结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETThis is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Market-implied probabilities for Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate at end-2026 concentrate below 1,700, with the sub-1,600 bracket at 51.0% and 1,600–1,699 at 34.5%.** These levels align with the latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) median near 1,630 and FocusEconomics consensus around 1,645, reflecting a managed crawl consistent with projected year-end inflation near 30% and annual GDP growth of 3–3.5%. The current official mayorista rate near 1,515 supports this path, as the BCRA continues net reserve purchases and maintains fiscal surpluses that limit abrupt adjustments. Wider dispersion in forecasts (1,335–1,850) and a strong peso weighing on manufacturing and construction explain residual probability mass in higher brackets, while the absence of major near-term shocks reinforces trader confidence in contained depreciation through December.
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$22,028结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET**Market-implied probabilities for Argentina’s official USD/ARS rate at end-2026 concentrate below 1,700, with the sub-1,600 bracket at 51.0% and 1,600–1,699 at 34.5%.** These levels align with the latest Relevamiento de Expectativas de Mercado (REM) median near 1,630 and FocusEconomics consensus around 1,645, reflecting a managed crawl consistent with projected year-end inflation near 30% and annual GDP growth of 3–3.5%. The current official mayorista rate near 1,515 supports this path, as the BCRA continues net reserve purchases and maintains fiscal surpluses that limit abrupt adjustments. Wider dispersion in forecasts (1,335–1,850) and a strong peso weighing on manufacturing and construction explain residual probability mass in higher brackets, while the absence of major near-term shocks reinforces trader confidence in contained depreciation through December.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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