The primary driver of EUR/USD positioning in November 2026 remains the wide policy-rate differential, with the Federal Reserve’s target range at 3.50–4.00% versus the ECB deposit rate at 2.50%, creating a 150 basis point advantage that supports the dollar. Recent U.S. nonfarm payrolls and wage data have lifted market-implied odds of further Fed tightening, while euro-area headline inflation at 4.0% has prompted ECB hikes that traders view as already priced in. Spot levels near 1.1165 reflect this dynamic, with the pair down roughly 3% over the past three months amid resilient U.S. growth and energy-driven European price pressures. Key near-term catalysts include the upcoming U.S. CPI release and December FOMC and ECB meetings, which will shape rate-path expectations and any potential year-end volatility.