Recent maritime confrontations in July 2026 at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal—featuring water cannon use, vessel rammings, and a reported baton injury to a Philippine sailor—have sustained South China Sea tensions without crossing into direct naval or air force combat. Foreign ministers exchanged formal protests yet maintained bilateral channels, while ASEAN Code of Conduct discussions advanced and U.S.-Philippines-Japan maritime drills reinforced deterrence. Philippine statements reaffirming the 2016 arbitral ruling and Chinese emphasis on sovereignty claims have kept friction localized to coast guard operations. Traders price the 67.5% probability of no military clash before 2027 on these containment patterns, alliance signaling, and absence of escalation triggers in the remaining months of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
33% 概率
$90,966 交易量
$90,966 交易量
2026-12-31
是
33% 概率
$90,966 交易量
$90,966 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent maritime confrontations in July 2026 at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal—featuring water cannon use, vessel rammings, and a reported baton injury to a Philippine sailor—have sustained South China Sea tensions without crossing into direct naval or air force combat. Foreign ministers exchanged formal protests yet maintained bilateral channels, while ASEAN Code of Conduct discussions advanced and U.S.-Philippines-Japan maritime drills reinforced deterrence. Philippine statements reaffirming the 2016 arbitral ruling and Chinese emphasis on sovereignty claims have kept friction localized to coast guard operations. Traders price the 67.5% probability of no military clash before 2027 on these containment patterns, alliance signaling, and absence of escalation triggers in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$90,966结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent maritime confrontations in July 2026 at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal—featuring water cannon use, vessel rammings, and a reported baton injury to a Philippine sailor—have sustained South China Sea tensions without crossing into direct naval or air force combat. Foreign ministers exchanged formal protests yet maintained bilateral channels, while ASEAN Code of Conduct discussions advanced and U.S.-Philippines-Japan maritime drills reinforced deterrence. Philippine statements reaffirming the 2016 arbitral ruling and Chinese emphasis on sovereignty claims have kept friction localized to coast guard operations. Traders price the 67.5% probability of no military clash before 2027 on these containment patterns, alliance signaling, and absence of escalation triggers in the remaining months of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$90,966结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jul 24, 2026, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent maritime confrontations in July 2026 at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal—featuring water cannon use, vessel rammings, and a reported baton injury to a Philippine sailor—have sustained South China Sea tensions without crossing into direct naval or air force combat. Foreign ministers exchanged formal protests yet maintained bilateral channels, while ASEAN Code of Conduct discussions advanced and U.S.-Philippines-Japan maritime drills reinforced deterrence. Philippine statements reaffirming the 2016 arbitral ruling and Chinese emphasis on sovereignty claims have kept friction localized to coast guard operations. Traders price the 67.5% probability of no military clash before 2027 on these containment patterns, alliance signaling, and absence of escalation triggers in the remaining months of 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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