Elon Musk’s historically high posting volume on X positions the 40-64 tweet range as the clear market favorite, reflecting traders’ assessment of his typical daily output amid ongoing company updates and commentary. The three-day window beginning August 6 aligns with patterns seen during active periods for Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments, where verified activity often clusters in the mid-range without extreme spikes. Lower-probability bins above 90 tweets capture tail risks from major news cycles or viral moments, while sub-40 outcomes remain discounted due to consistent baseline engagement. No singular confirmed catalyst has emerged in recent days to shift the distribution, leaving the implied probabilities anchored in established behavioral trends rather than one-off events.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于40-64 48%
65-89 27%
少于40 16%
90-114 8%
$44,884 交易量
$44,884 交易量
2026-08-08
少于40
16%
40-64
48%
65-89
27%
90-114
8%
115-139
2%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 48%
65-89 27%
少于40 16%
90-114 8%
$44,884 交易量
$44,884 交易量
2026-08-08
少于40
$6,505 交易量
16%
40-64
$4,408 交易量
48%
65-89
$2,968 交易量
27%
90-114
$4,410 交易量
8%
115-139
$6,411 交易量
2%
140-164
$8,595 交易量
<1%
165-189
$2,210 交易量
<1%
190-214
$5,734 交易量
<1%
215-239
$1,771 交易量
<1%
240+
$1,931 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s historically high posting volume on X positions the 40-64 tweet range as the clear market favorite, reflecting traders’ assessment of his typical daily output amid ongoing company updates and commentary. The three-day window beginning August 6 aligns with patterns seen during active periods for Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments, where verified activity often clusters in the mid-range without extreme spikes. Lower-probability bins above 90 tweets capture tail risks from major news cycles or viral moments, while sub-40 outcomes remain discounted due to consistent baseline engagement. No singular confirmed catalyst has emerged in recent days to shift the distribution, leaving the implied probabilities anchored in established behavioral trends rather than one-off events.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
交易量
$44,884结束日期
2026-08-08市场开放时间
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s historically high posting volume on X positions the 40-64 tweet range as the clear market favorite, reflecting traders’ assessment of his typical daily output amid ongoing company updates and commentary. The three-day window beginning August 6 aligns with patterns seen during active periods for Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments, where verified activity often clusters in the mid-range without extreme spikes. Lower-probability bins above 90 tweets capture tail risks from major news cycles or viral moments, while sub-40 outcomes remain discounted due to consistent baseline engagement. No singular confirmed catalyst has emerged in recent days to shift the distribution, leaving the implied probabilities anchored in established behavioral trends rather than one-off events.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$44,884结束日期
2026-08-08市场开放时间
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s historically high posting volume on X positions the 40-64 tweet range as the clear market favorite, reflecting traders’ assessment of his typical daily output amid ongoing company updates and commentary. The three-day window beginning August 6 aligns with patterns seen during active periods for Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI developments, where verified activity often clusters in the mid-range without extreme spikes. Lower-probability bins above 90 tweets capture tail risks from major news cycles or viral moments, while sub-40 outcomes remain discounted due to consistent baseline engagement. No singular confirmed catalyst has emerged in recent days to shift the distribution, leaving the implied probabilities anchored in established behavioral trends rather than one-off events.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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