Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week has positioned the 200-219 tweet range as the clear market frontrunner at 42.6% implied probability, driven by his pattern of frequent replies to Tesla FSD updates, Starship test commentary, and cultural debates. Traders have noted his consistent engagement with community posts on vehicle safety data, launch vehicle redesigns, and policy critiques, which historically push weekly counts into the low 200s during active product cycles. The adjacent 180-199 and 220-239 brackets trail at 28.5% and 20.5%, reflecting uncertainty around whether the final day will add enough replies to push totals higher. With the week ending May 19 and no major platform outages reported, market consensus centers on sustained but not record-breaking activity tied to ongoing Tesla and SpaceX news flow.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于200-219 42.1%
180-199 29.1%
220-239 20.5%
240-259 3.5%
$9,849,757 交易量
$9,849,757 交易量
2026-05-19
140-159
<1%
160-179
2%
180-199
29%
200-219
42%
220-239
21%
240-259
4%
260-279
1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 42.1%
180-199 29.1%
220-239 20.5%
240-259 3.5%
$9,849,757 交易量
$9,849,757 交易量
2026-05-19
140-159
$719,993 交易量
<1%
160-179
$508,222 交易量
2%
180-199
$398,016 交易量
29%
200-219
$379,558 交易量
42%
220-239
$420,250 交易量
21%
240-259
$326,423 交易量
4%
260-279
$307,165 交易量
1%
280-299
$282,200 交易量
<1%
300-319
$331,410 交易量
<1%
320-339
$406,255 交易量
<1%
340-359
$431,349 交易量
<1%
360-379
$416,804 交易量
<1%
380-399
$400,329 交易量
<1%
400-419
$550,953 交易量
<1%
420-439
$157,847 交易量
<1%
440-459
$82,158 交易量
<1%
460-479
$67,054 交易量
<1%
480-499
$29,200 交易量
<1%
500+
$241,779 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week has positioned the 200-219 tweet range as the clear market frontrunner at 42.6% implied probability, driven by his pattern of frequent replies to Tesla FSD updates, Starship test commentary, and cultural debates. Traders have noted his consistent engagement with community posts on vehicle safety data, launch vehicle redesigns, and policy critiques, which historically push weekly counts into the low 200s during active product cycles. The adjacent 180-199 and 220-239 brackets trail at 28.5% and 20.5%, reflecting uncertainty around whether the final day will add enough replies to push totals higher. With the week ending May 19 and no major platform outages reported, market consensus centers on sustained but not record-breaking activity tied to ongoing Tesla and SpaceX news flow.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ET
交易量
$9,849,757结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week has positioned the 200-219 tweet range as the clear market frontrunner at 42.6% implied probability, driven by his pattern of frequent replies to Tesla FSD updates, Starship test commentary, and cultural debates. Traders have noted his consistent engagement with community posts on vehicle safety data, launch vehicle redesigns, and policy critiques, which historically push weekly counts into the low 200s during active product cycles. The adjacent 180-199 and 220-239 brackets trail at 28.5% and 20.5%, reflecting uncertainty around whether the final day will add enough replies to push totals higher. With the week ending May 19 and no major platform outages reported, market consensus centers on sustained but not record-breaking activity tied to ongoing Tesla and SpaceX news flow.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 12 12:00 PM ET to May 19, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$9,849,757结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
May 9, 2026, 4:07 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s elevated posting pace on X this week has positioned the 200-219 tweet range as the clear market frontrunner at 42.6% implied probability, driven by his pattern of frequent replies to Tesla FSD updates, Starship test commentary, and cultural debates. Traders have noted his consistent engagement with community posts on vehicle safety data, launch vehicle redesigns, and policy critiques, which historically push weekly counts into the low 200s during active product cycles. The adjacent 180-199 and 220-239 brackets trail at 28.5% and 20.5%, reflecting uncertainty around whether the final day will add enough replies to push totals higher. With the week ending May 19 and no major platform outages reported, market consensus centers on sustained but not record-breaking activity tied to ongoing Tesla and SpaceX news flow.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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