Recent surges in Elon Musk’s X activity around Tesla’s FSD v14.3.3 rollout and Starship Flight 12 preparations have anchored trader expectations for 40-64 tweets over the May 16-18 window, now carrying a 61.5% implied probability. Secondary positioning at 65-89 (35.5%) reflects the possibility of extended commentary on AI timelines, vehicle updates, and cultural debates, patterns consistent with his output during major product cycles. No fresh announcements have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter momentum, leaving the current range as the clearest reflection of his established posting cadence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于40-64 64%
65-89 36%
90-114 1.8%
115-139 <1%
$948,485 交易量
$948,485 交易量
2026-05-18
少于40条
<1%
40-64
64%
65-89
36%
90-114
2%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 64%
65-89 36%
90-114 1.8%
115-139 <1%
$948,485 交易量
$948,485 交易量
2026-05-18
少于40条
$345,673 交易量
<1%
40-64
$99,241 交易量
64%
65-89
$97,573 交易量
36%
90-114
$118,901 交易量
2%
115-139
$99,877 交易量
<1%
140-164
$62,186 交易量
<1%
165-189
$53,265 交易量
<1%
190-214
$37,343 交易量
<1%
215-239
$15,853 交易量
<1%
240+
$18,696 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent surges in Elon Musk’s X activity around Tesla’s FSD v14.3.3 rollout and Starship Flight 12 preparations have anchored trader expectations for 40-64 tweets over the May 16-18 window, now carrying a 61.5% implied probability. Secondary positioning at 65-89 (35.5%) reflects the possibility of extended commentary on AI timelines, vehicle updates, and cultural debates, patterns consistent with his output during major product cycles. No fresh announcements have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter momentum, leaving the current range as the clearest reflection of his established posting cadence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
交易量
$948,485结束日期
2026-05-18市场开放时间
May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Recent surges in Elon Musk’s X activity around Tesla’s FSD v14.3.3 rollout and Starship Flight 12 preparations have anchored trader expectations for 40-64 tweets over the May 16-18 window, now carrying a 61.5% implied probability. Secondary positioning at 65-89 (35.5%) reflects the possibility of extended commentary on AI timelines, vehicle updates, and cultural debates, patterns consistent with his output during major product cycles. No fresh announcements have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter momentum, leaving the current range as the clearest reflection of his established posting cadence.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 16 12:00 PM ET to May 18, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$948,485结束日期
2026-05-18市场开放时间
May 14, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent surges in Elon Musk’s X activity around Tesla’s FSD v14.3.3 rollout and Starship Flight 12 preparations have anchored trader expectations for 40-64 tweets over the May 16-18 window, now carrying a 61.5% implied probability. Secondary positioning at 65-89 (35.5%) reflects the possibility of extended commentary on AI timelines, vehicle updates, and cultural debates, patterns consistent with his output during major product cycles. No fresh announcements have emerged in the past 48 hours to alter momentum, leaving the current range as the clearest reflection of his established posting cadence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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