Trader consensus on Polymarket has surged to 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from May 2-4, driven by the tracking period's conclusion yesterday and transparent platform data confirming the exact count in that mid-range bin. As a pop culture powerhouse whose viral posts shape public discourse on tech, politics, and memes, Musk maintained his characteristic cadence of roughly 13-21 daily updates—fueled by routine SpaceX/Tesla/xAI shares—without controversy-sparked surges that historically push volumes higher. Absent fresh catalysts like election drama or product reveals in the past week, traders' skin-in-the-game bets reflect this steady pattern. Realistic upsets hinge on rare resolution disputes over post definitions (e.g., replies, quotes) or data glitches, though odds price such risks at just 0.1%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于40-64 100.0%
少于40条 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,702,369 交易量
$1,702,369 交易量
2026-05-04
少于40条
否
40-64
是
65-89
否
90-114
否
115-139
否
140-164
否
165-189
否
190-214
否
215-239
否
240+
否
40-64 100.0%
少于40条 <1%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$1,702,369 交易量
$1,702,369 交易量
2026-05-04
少于40条
$274,456 交易量
否
40-64
$357,768 交易量
是
65-89
$397,895 交易量
否
90-114
$332,054 交易量
否
115-139
$168,071 交易量
否
140-164
$80,181 交易量
否
165-189
$27,544 交易量
否
190-214
$24,233 交易量
否
215-239
$22,004 交易量
否
240+
$18,164 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has surged to 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from May 2-4, driven by the tracking period's conclusion yesterday and transparent platform data confirming the exact count in that mid-range bin. As a pop culture powerhouse whose viral posts shape public discourse on tech, politics, and memes, Musk maintained his characteristic cadence of roughly 13-21 daily updates—fueled by routine SpaceX/Tesla/xAI shares—without controversy-sparked surges that historically push volumes higher. Absent fresh catalysts like election drama or product reveals in the past week, traders' skin-in-the-game bets reflect this steady pattern. Realistic upsets hinge on rare resolution disputes over post definitions (e.g., replies, quotes) or data glitches, though odds price such risks at just 0.1%.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
交易量
$1,702,369结束日期
2026-05-04市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has surged to 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from May 2-4, driven by the tracking period's conclusion yesterday and transparent platform data confirming the exact count in that mid-range bin. As a pop culture powerhouse whose viral posts shape public discourse on tech, politics, and memes, Musk maintained his characteristic cadence of roughly 13-21 daily updates—fueled by routine SpaceX/Tesla/xAI shares—without controversy-sparked surges that historically push volumes higher. Absent fresh catalysts like election drama or product reveals in the past week, traders' skin-in-the-game bets reflect this steady pattern. Realistic upsets hinge on rare resolution disputes over post definitions (e.g., replies, quotes) or data glitches, though odds price such risks at just 0.1%.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 2 12:00 PM ET to May 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$1,702,369结束日期
2026-05-04市场开放时间
Apr 30, 2026, 12:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has surged to 100% implied probability for Elon Musk posting 40-64 times on X from May 2-4, driven by the tracking period's conclusion yesterday and transparent platform data confirming the exact count in that mid-range bin. As a pop culture powerhouse whose viral posts shape public discourse on tech, politics, and memes, Musk maintained his characteristic cadence of roughly 13-21 daily updates—fueled by routine SpaceX/Tesla/xAI shares—without controversy-sparked surges that historically push volumes higher. Absent fresh catalysts like election drama or product reveals in the past week, traders' skin-in-the-game bets reflect this steady pattern. Realistic upsets hinge on rare resolution disputes over post definitions (e.g., replies, quotes) or data glitches, though odds price such risks at just 0.1%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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