Trader consensus favors 100-119 Elon Musk X posts (48.5% implied probability) for May 8-15, reflecting his steady mid-teens daily average of qualifying posts—originals, quotes, and reposts on the main feed, excluding most replies—amid a quiet news cycle lacking major SpaceX launches, Tesla earnings, or political firestorms that historically spike volumes past 140. Recent momentum stems from May 12 highlights like xAI's Grok Voice topping agentic benchmarks, SpaceX spaceport expansions, and cultural jabs at Hollywood DEI in Oscars casting, sustaining 15 posts per day over the last 48 hours without viral escalation. With three days left to May 15 resolution, traders eye weekend catalysts such as company announcements or controversies to tip toward 120-139 (32.3%), underscoring the platform's role in Musk's pop culture dominance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于100-119 48.4%
120-139 33.3%
80-99 10.4%
140-159 7.6%
$7,353,846 交易量
$7,353,846 交易量
80-99
10%
100-119
48%
120-139
33%
140-159
8%
160-179
2%
180-199
1%
200-219
1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
100-119 48.4%
120-139 33.3%
80-99 10.4%
140-159 7.6%
$7,353,846 交易量
$7,353,846 交易量
80-99
10%
100-119
48%
120-139
33%
140-159
8%
160-179
2%
180-199
1%
200-219
1%
220-239
<1%
240-259
<1%
260-279
<1%
280-299
<1%
300-319
<1%
320-339
<1%
340-359
<1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： May 5, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 100-119 Elon Musk X posts (48.5% implied probability) for May 8-15, reflecting his steady mid-teens daily average of qualifying posts—originals, quotes, and reposts on the main feed, excluding most replies—amid a quiet news cycle lacking major SpaceX launches, Tesla earnings, or political firestorms that historically spike volumes past 140. Recent momentum stems from May 12 highlights like xAI's Grok Voice topping agentic benchmarks, SpaceX spaceport expansions, and cultural jabs at Hollywood DEI in Oscars casting, sustaining 15 posts per day over the last 48 hours without viral escalation. With three days left to May 15 resolution, traders eye weekend catalysts such as company announcements or controversies to tip toward 120-139 (32.3%), underscoring the platform's role in Musk's pop culture dominance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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