Elon Musk’s baseline X posting rate of roughly 15–25 posts per day, including originals, quotes, and reposts, positions the 40–64 bracket as the market favorite at 54.5% implied probability for the September 24–26 window. Recent resolved three-day periods have frequently landed in that range during non-event stretches, while longer windows show higher totals when AI or SpaceX news spikes engagement. The Grok 4.7 rollout on September 21 already lifted volume with promotional replies, yet no comparable catalyst is scheduled for the target dates, keeping trader consensus anchored to moderate activity. An upcoming Starship test or fresh model update could push counts into the 65–89 range at 30.5%, but absent major announcements the lower brackets dominate current sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于40-64 54%
65-89 31%
少于40条 8%
90-114 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-26
少于40条
8%
40-64
54%
65-89
31%
90-114
7%
115-139
2%
140-164
1%
165-189
1%
190-214
1%
215-239
<1%
240条以上
<1%
40-64 54%
65-89 31%
少于40条 8%
90-114 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-26
少于40条
$1,656 交易量
8%
40-64
$326 交易量
54%
65-89
$176 交易量
31%
90-114
$268 交易量
7%
115-139
$97 交易量
2%
140-164
$54 交易量
1%
165-189
$62 交易量
1%
190-214
$123 交易量
1%
215-239
$683 交易量
<1%
240条以上
$645 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 24 12:00 PM ET to September 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s baseline X posting rate of roughly 15–25 posts per day, including originals, quotes, and reposts, positions the 40–64 bracket as the market favorite at 54.5% implied probability for the September 24–26 window. Recent resolved three-day periods have frequently landed in that range during non-event stretches, while longer windows show higher totals when AI or SpaceX news spikes engagement. The Grok 4.7 rollout on September 21 already lifted volume with promotional replies, yet no comparable catalyst is scheduled for the target dates, keeping trader consensus anchored to moderate activity. An upcoming Starship test or fresh model update could push counts into the 65–89 range at 30.5%, but absent major announcements the lower brackets dominate current sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 24 12:00 PM ET to September 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Sep 21, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
交易量
$4,089结束日期
2026-09-26市场开放时间
Sep 21, 2026, 12:07 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 24 12:00 PM ET to September 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s baseline X posting rate of roughly 15–25 posts per day, including originals, quotes, and reposts, positions the 40–64 bracket as the market favorite at 54.5% implied probability for the September 24–26 window. Recent resolved three-day periods have frequently landed in that range during non-event stretches, while longer windows show higher totals when AI or SpaceX news spikes engagement. The Grok 4.7 rollout on September 21 already lifted volume with promotional replies, yet no comparable catalyst is scheduled for the target dates, keeping trader consensus anchored to moderate activity. An upcoming Starship test or fresh model update could push counts into the 65–89 range at 30.5%, but absent major announcements the lower brackets dominate current sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from September 24 12:00 PM ET to September 26, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$4,089结束日期
2026-09-26市场开放时间
Sep 21, 2026, 12:07 PM ETElon Musk’s baseline X posting rate of roughly 15–25 posts per day, including originals, quotes, and reposts, positions the 40–64 bracket as the market favorite at 54.5% implied probability for the September 24–26 window. Recent resolved three-day periods have frequently landed in that range during non-event stretches, while longer windows show higher totals when AI or SpaceX news spikes engagement. The Grok 4.7 rollout on September 21 already lifted volume with promotional replies, yet no comparable catalyst is scheduled for the target dates, keeping trader consensus anchored to moderate activity. An upcoming Starship test or fresh model update could push counts into the 65–89 range at 30.5%, but absent major announcements the lower brackets dominate current sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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