Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” leads the VMA Video of the Year market at 63% implied probability, reflecting her unmatched category history, the track’s chart-topping performance from *The Life of a Showgirl*, and the video’s high-production visuals that earned multiple technical nods. Traders appear to factor in Swift’s dedicated fanbase driving fan-voted outcomes ahead of the September 27 ceremony, where voting closes September 25. Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” sits at 23% as the most-nominated artist overall and show opener, buoyed by its ambitious long-form format but facing a narrower path against Swift’s momentum. Lower probabilities for Ariana Grande, Sabrina Carpenter, Bruno Mars, and Gener8ion ft. Yung Lean entries align with comparatively lighter recent commercial or cultural tailwinds in this marquee race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年度VMA视频
2026年度VMA视频
The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒·斯威夫特） 66%
Confessions II – The Film（麦当娜） 23%
Hate That I Made You Love Me（Ariana Grande） 1%
I Just Might（Bruno Mars） 1%
最新
最新
2026-09-27
The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒·斯威夫特）
66%
Confessions II – The Film（麦当娜）
23%
Hate That I Made You Love Me（Ariana Grande）
9%
I Just Might（Bruno Mars）
9%
Storm（Gener8ion与Yung Lean合作）
9%
Tears（萨布丽娜·卡彭特）
9%
The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒·斯威夫特） 66%
Confessions II – The Film（麦当娜） 23%
Hate That I Made You Love Me（Ariana Grande） 1%
I Just Might（Bruno Mars） 1%
最新
最新
2026-09-27
The Fate of Ophelia（泰勒·斯威夫特）
$135 交易量
66%
Confessions II – The Film（麦当娜）
$65 交易量
23%
Hate That I Made You Love Me（Ariana Grande）
$30 交易量
9%
I Just Might（Bruno Mars）
$18 交易量
9%
Storm（Gener8ion与Yung Lean合作）
$2 交易量
9%
Tears（萨布丽娜·卡彭特）
$14 交易量
9%
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” leads the VMA Video of the Year market at 63% implied probability, reflecting her unmatched category history, the track’s chart-topping performance from *The Life of a Showgirl*, and the video’s high-production visuals that earned multiple technical nods. Traders appear to factor in Swift’s dedicated fanbase driving fan-voted outcomes ahead of the September 27 ceremony, where voting closes September 25. Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” sits at 23% as the most-nominated artist overall and show opener, buoyed by its ambitious long-form format but facing a narrower path against Swift’s momentum. Lower probabilities for Ariana Grande, Sabrina Carpenter, Bruno Mars, and Gener8ion ft. Yung Lean entries align with comparatively lighter recent commercial or cultural tailwinds in this marquee race.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$264结束日期
2026-09-28市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ETThe MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” leads the VMA Video of the Year market at 63% implied probability, reflecting her unmatched category history, the track’s chart-topping performance from *The Life of a Showgirl*, and the video’s high-production visuals that earned multiple technical nods. Traders appear to factor in Swift’s dedicated fanbase driving fan-voted outcomes ahead of the September 27 ceremony, where voting closes September 25. Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” sits at 23% as the most-nominated artist overall and show opener, buoyed by its ambitious long-form format but facing a narrower path against Swift’s momentum. Lower probabilities for Ariana Grande, Sabrina Carpenter, Bruno Mars, and Gener8ion ft. Yung Lean entries align with comparatively lighter recent commercial or cultural tailwinds in this marquee race.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed video that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year.
If a video was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Video of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated video whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$264结束日期
2026-09-28市场开放时间
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ETTaylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” leads the VMA Video of the Year market at 63% implied probability, reflecting her unmatched category history, the track’s chart-topping performance from *The Life of a Showgirl*, and the video’s high-production visuals that earned multiple technical nods. Traders appear to factor in Swift’s dedicated fanbase driving fan-voted outcomes ahead of the September 27 ceremony, where voting closes September 25. Madonna’s “Confessions II – The Film” sits at 23% as the most-nominated artist overall and show opener, buoyed by its ambitious long-form format but facing a narrower path against Swift’s momentum. Lower probabilities for Ariana Grande, Sabrina Carpenter, Bruno Mars, and Gener8ion ft. Yung Lean entries align with comparatively lighter recent commercial or cultural tailwinds in this marquee race.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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