Finland leads the market at 67.5% implied probability for winning the first semi-final, driven by standout dress rehearsals and live performances of “Liekinheitin,” where Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen delivered high-energy violin shredding, inventive staging, and broad voter appeal that aligned with historical patterns for charismatic Nordic entries. Israel follows at 14.5% amid confirmed qualification but tempered by ongoing participation controversy and audience boos during its May 12 semi-final slot. Greece at 10.5% benefits from strong critical buzz for Akylas’s party-rap track “Ferto,” while Croatia, Moldova, and lower-probability entrants trail due to more modest rehearsal feedback and limited precursor momentum. The May 16 final and rapid post-semi chart updates remain the next key catalysts.