No FDA-approved hantavirus vaccine exists, and leading candidates remain in preclinical or early Phase I stages, driving the 96.5% market-implied probability against approval by December 31, 2026. Moderna-Korea University mRNA work and UTMB single-dose candidates have shown strong immunogenicity and full protection in rodent models against Andes and other strains, yet these efforts have not advanced to human efficacy trials. A UK MVA-based candidate entered Phase I safety testing, but standard regulatory pathways for full licensure require multi-year data on diverse hantavirus strains, with no emergency-use authorization pathway activated despite the 2026 MV Hondius outbreak. New model updates or outbreak surveillance from CDC and WHO could alter timelines only if they trigger accelerated programs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
4% 概率
$136,375 交易量
$136,375 交易量
2026-12-31
4% 概率
$136,375 交易量
$136,375 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No FDA-approved hantavirus vaccine exists, and leading candidates remain in preclinical or early Phase I stages, driving the 96.5% market-implied probability against approval by December 31, 2026. Moderna-Korea University mRNA work and UTMB single-dose candidates have shown strong immunogenicity and full protection in rodent models against Andes and other strains, yet these efforts have not advanced to human efficacy trials. A UK MVA-based candidate entered Phase I safety testing, but standard regulatory pathways for full licensure require multi-year data on diverse hantavirus strains, with no emergency-use authorization pathway activated despite the 2026 MV Hondius outbreak. New model updates or outbreak surveillance from CDC and WHO could alter timelines only if they trigger accelerated programs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
交易量
$136,375结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No FDA-approved hantavirus vaccine exists, and leading candidates remain in preclinical or early Phase I stages, driving the 96.5% market-implied probability against approval by December 31, 2026. Moderna-Korea University mRNA work and UTMB single-dose candidates have shown strong immunogenicity and full protection in rodent models against Andes and other strains, yet these efforts have not advanced to human efficacy trials. A UK MVA-based candidate entered Phase I safety testing, but standard regulatory pathways for full licensure require multi-year data on diverse hantavirus strains, with no emergency-use authorization pathway activated despite the 2026 MV Hondius outbreak. New model updates or outbreak surveillance from CDC and WHO could alter timelines only if they trigger accelerated programs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any vaccine intended for humans and inoculating against Hantavirus (including Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) or Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS)) receives full approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FDA, including its list of approved vaccines (https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/vaccines/vaccines-licensed-use-united-states), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$136,375结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
May 4, 2026, 10:39 AM ETNo FDA-approved hantavirus vaccine exists, and leading candidates remain in preclinical or early Phase I stages, driving the 96.5% market-implied probability against approval by December 31, 2026. Moderna-Korea University mRNA work and UTMB single-dose candidates have shown strong immunogenicity and full protection in rodent models against Andes and other strains, yet these efforts have not advanced to human efficacy trials. A UK MVA-based candidate entered Phase I safety testing, but standard regulatory pathways for full licensure require multi-year data on diverse hantavirus strains, with no emergency-use authorization pathway activated despite the 2026 MV Hondius outbreak. New model updates or outbreak surveillance from CDC and WHO could alter timelines only if they trigger accelerated programs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题