Recent short-range forecasts from numerical weather prediction models position daily maximum temperatures in Ankara around 28–30°C for July 14, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes. Ankara’s continental climate typically produces July highs near the long-term average of 29–32°C under persistent high pressure and clear skies, with minimal cloud cover and light winds enhancing daytime heating. Current model consensus shows a stable ridge over the Anatolian plateau maintaining these conditions without significant advection of cooler air or moisture. Ensemble spreads remain narrow two days ahead, limiting upside risk above 32°C or downside below 27°C, while historical climatology reinforces the narrow probability band traders have priced. Updated runs from major agencies will provide the next key data points before resolution.