Traders are heavily favoring 94-95°F (44% implied probability) as the peak temperature in Houston on July 25, 2026, followed by 92-93°F (27%), reflecting consensus from National Weather Service and model guidance showing typical midsummer conditions under a building subtropical ridge. Normal highs for late July at Houston Intercontinental Airport average 94-96°F, driven by strong insolation, southerly flow off the Gulf of Mexico, and minimal cloud cover early in the day. Recent developments include an expanding heat dome across Texas that has produced highs in the mid-90s to near 100°F in prior days, with limited afternoon convection expected to provide slight cooling without widespread rain. Model runs show low precipitation chances and dew points in the mid-70s, supporting heat indices above 105°F but limiting extreme outliers. Any late-day sea breeze or scattered storms could cap readings near the lower end of the favored range, while stronger subsidence would push toward 96-97°F.