Current ensemble forecasts from major models place Madrid's July 1 maximum near 36–38 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with clear skies and light winds, producing the tight market spread between 37 °C (36.5 %) and 38 °C (30.5 %). Madrid’s inland location amplifies diurnal heating on the Iberian plateau, where surface temperatures respond quickly to insolation and boundary-layer mixing; small differences in forecast timing of peak warmth or slight model spread in 850 hPa temperatures therefore shift the expected daily high across the 36–38 °C range. Historical July maxima average 32–34 °C, so the current pattern reflects above-climatology conditions without extreme heatwave signals, leaving modest probability mass on 36 °C and 39 °C while rendering outcomes above 40 °C unlikely absent rapid model shifts ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Madrid on July 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 1?
37°C 37%
38°C 31%
36°C 23%
39°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-07-01
34°C or below
1%
35°C
3%
36°C
23%
37°C
37%
38°C
31%
39°C
7%
40°C
2%
41°C
1%
42°C
1%
43°C
1%
44°C or higher
1%
37°C 37%
38°C 31%
36°C 23%
39°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-07-01
34°C or below
$15 交易量
1%
35°C
$15 交易量
3%
36°C
$80 交易量
23%
37°C
$106 交易量
37%
38°C
$128 交易量
31%
39°C
$165 交易量
7%
40°C
$15 交易量
2%
41°C
$25 交易量
1%
42°C
$36 交易量
1%
43°C
$21 交易量
1%
44°C or higher
$305 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models place Madrid's July 1 maximum near 36–38 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with clear skies and light winds, producing the tight market spread between 37 °C (36.5 %) and 38 °C (30.5 %). Madrid’s inland location amplifies diurnal heating on the Iberian plateau, where surface temperatures respond quickly to insolation and boundary-layer mixing; small differences in forecast timing of peak warmth or slight model spread in 850 hPa temperatures therefore shift the expected daily high across the 36–38 °C range. Historical July maxima average 32–34 °C, so the current pattern reflects above-climatology conditions without extreme heatwave signals, leaving modest probability mass on 36 °C and 39 °C while rendering outcomes above 40 °C unlikely absent rapid model shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$911结束日期
2026-07-01市场开放时间
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major models place Madrid's July 1 maximum near 36–38 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with clear skies and light winds, producing the tight market spread between 37 °C (36.5 %) and 38 °C (30.5 %). Madrid’s inland location amplifies diurnal heating on the Iberian plateau, where surface temperatures respond quickly to insolation and boundary-layer mixing; small differences in forecast timing of peak warmth or slight model spread in 850 hPa temperatures therefore shift the expected daily high across the 36–38 °C range. Historical July maxima average 32–34 °C, so the current pattern reflects above-climatology conditions without extreme heatwave signals, leaving modest probability mass on 36 °C and 39 °C while rendering outcomes above 40 °C unlikely absent rapid model shifts ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$911结束日期
2026-07-01市场开放时间
Jun 29, 2026, 12:02 AM ETCurrent ensemble forecasts from major models place Madrid's July 1 maximum near 36–38 °C under a stable high-pressure regime with clear skies and light winds, producing the tight market spread between 37 °C (36.5 %) and 38 °C (30.5 %). Madrid’s inland location amplifies diurnal heating on the Iberian plateau, where surface temperatures respond quickly to insolation and boundary-layer mixing; small differences in forecast timing of peak warmth or slight model spread in 850 hPa temperatures therefore shift the expected daily high across the 36–38 °C range. Historical July maxima average 32–34 °C, so the current pattern reflects above-climatology conditions without extreme heatwave signals, leaving modest probability mass on 36 °C and 39 °C while rendering outcomes above 40 °C unlikely absent rapid model shifts ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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