Traders are clustering around 25–28°C for Seoul’s July 8 high because the East Asian monsoon remains active, with official Korea Meteorological Administration and model guidance indicating widespread cloud cover and heavy rain that limits daytime heating. Typical July climatology features 28–30°C peaks, yet current forecasts emphasize precipitation-driven moderation, keeping maximum temperatures near the lower end of the seasonal range. Humidity and frontal boundaries add uncertainty, allowing modest warming if breaks in cloud occur, which supports the near-even distribution across 26–28°C outcomes while capping odds for 30°C or higher. Updated short-range runs expected in the next 24–48 hours will refine resolution criteria tied to official daily maximum observations.