Trader consensus strongly favors exactly one magnitude 6.5 or greater earthquake worldwide during September 14–20, reflecting USGS and global seismic network data showing a single confirmed event—a 6.5 quake near Alaska on September 17—within the typical weekly rate derived from roughly 134 magnitude 6–6.9 events per year. This aligns with the Gutenberg-Richter distribution and Poisson-like occurrence of larger events, where clustering is limited and most weeks record zero to two such quakes. Market-implied odds above 97% for one event rest on verified observations through the period’s close, with model consensus and absence of additional alerts from monitoring agencies reinforcing the count. A late revision elevating a 6.4 event, such as the September 20 Papua New Guinea quake, or discovery of an unreported deep event could shift the outcome, though historical completeness for this magnitude range makes such changes unlikely.