Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, currently near 2.93%, has climbed sharply amid the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization, with the policy rate now at 1.00% following the July meeting and markets pricing a potential September hike. Persistent core inflation above target, a weak yen amplifying imported price pressures, and upward revisions to the BOJ’s FY2026 inflation outlook have reinforced expectations for further gradual tightening, pushing implied probabilities toward the 3.0%+ bucket at 51.2% for year-end. Recent data show the yield up 20 basis points over the past month and 135 basis points year-over-year, reflecting reduced JGB purchases and shifting global rate differentials versus U.S. Treasuries. The September 17–18 Monetary Policy Meeting and upcoming inflation releases remain key near-term catalysts that could sustain or moderate the upward trajectory through December.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于3.0%+ 51.2%
2.8-3.0% 32.4%
2.6-2.8% 8%
2.4-2.6% 4.0%
$21,436 交易量
$21,436 交易量
2026-12-31
<2.0%
2%
2.0-2.2%
3%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
4%
2.6-2.8%
8%
2.8-3.0%
32%
3.0%+
51%
3.0%+ 51.2%
2.8-3.0% 32.4%
2.6-2.8% 8%
2.4-2.6% 4.0%
$21,436 交易量
$21,436 交易量
2026-12-31
<2.0%
$901 交易量
2%
2.0-2.2%
$1,124 交易量
3%
2.2-2.4%
$794 交易量
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,020 交易量
4%
2.6-2.8%
$2,074 交易量
8%
2.8-3.0%
$8,007 交易量
32%
3.0%+
$6,516 交易量
51%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, currently near 2.93%, has climbed sharply amid the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization, with the policy rate now at 1.00% following the July meeting and markets pricing a potential September hike. Persistent core inflation above target, a weak yen amplifying imported price pressures, and upward revisions to the BOJ’s FY2026 inflation outlook have reinforced expectations for further gradual tightening, pushing implied probabilities toward the 3.0%+ bucket at 51.2% for year-end. Recent data show the yield up 20 basis points over the past month and 135 basis points year-over-year, reflecting reduced JGB purchases and shifting global rate differentials versus U.S. Treasuries. The September 17–18 Monetary Policy Meeting and upcoming inflation releases remain key near-term catalysts that could sustain or moderate the upward trajectory through December.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
市场开放时间： Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
交易量
$21,436结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, currently near 2.93%, has climbed sharply amid the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization, with the policy rate now at 1.00% following the July meeting and markets pricing a potential September hike. Persistent core inflation above target, a weak yen amplifying imported price pressures, and upward revisions to the BOJ’s FY2026 inflation outlook have reinforced expectations for further gradual tightening, pushing implied probabilities toward the 3.0%+ bucket at 51.2% for year-end. Recent data show the yield up 20 basis points over the past month and 135 basis points year-over-year, reflecting reduced JGB purchases and shifting global rate differentials versus U.S. Treasuries. The September 17–18 Monetary Policy Meeting and upcoming inflation releases remain key near-term catalysts that could sustain or moderate the upward trajectory through December.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
交易量
$21,436结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, currently near 2.93%, has climbed sharply amid the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization, with the policy rate now at 1.00% following the July meeting and markets pricing a potential September hike. Persistent core inflation above target, a weak yen amplifying imported price pressures, and upward revisions to the BOJ’s FY2026 inflation outlook have reinforced expectations for further gradual tightening, pushing implied probabilities toward the 3.0%+ bucket at 51.2% for year-end. Recent data show the yield up 20 basis points over the past month and 135 basis points year-over-year, reflecting reduced JGB purchases and shifting global rate differentials versus U.S. Treasuries. The September 17–18 Monetary Policy Meeting and upcoming inflation releases remain key near-term catalysts that could sustain or moderate the upward trajectory through December.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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