**The 82.9% market-implied probability of “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before the end of 2026 reflects the slow pace of the Canadian criminal justice system and the limited progress in his case to date.** Aguiar, the Toronto-based dating coach and content creator also known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count of sexual assault tied to an alleged August 2024 incident. He has denied the allegation and his lawyer has stated he will contest it fully in court. Earlier charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, with the 2019 matter resolved via a peace bond. Additional women have publicly shared unverified allegations in media reports, but these have not produced new formal charges. Sexual assault cases in Canada historically show low conviction rates, and court backlogs—exacerbated by pandemic delays—often extend timelines well beyond initial appearances. With the next procedural steps still unfolding and no trial date or plea developments reported as of mid-2026, traders see little realistic path to a conviction judgment before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff. Key upcoming catalysts include any disclosure updates, preliminary hearings, or scheduling orders that could accelerate the process.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Justin Aguiar在2027年之前被判犯有性侵犯罪？
Justin Aguiar在2027年之前被判犯有性侵犯罪？
是
31% 概率
$52,562 交易量
$52,562 交易量
2026-12-31
是
31% 概率
$52,562 交易量
$52,562 交易量
2026-12-31
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**The 82.9% market-implied probability of “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before the end of 2026 reflects the slow pace of the Canadian criminal justice system and the limited progress in his case to date.**
Aguiar, the Toronto-based dating coach and content creator also known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count of sexual assault tied to an alleged August 2024 incident. He has denied the allegation and his lawyer has stated he will contest it fully in court. Earlier charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, with the 2019 matter resolved via a peace bond.
Additional women have publicly shared unverified allegations in media reports, but these have not produced new formal charges. Sexual assault cases in Canada historically show low conviction rates, and court backlogs—exacerbated by pandemic delays—often extend timelines well beyond initial appearances. With the next procedural steps still unfolding and no trial date or plea developments reported as of mid-2026, traders see little realistic path to a conviction judgment before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff.
Key upcoming catalysts include any disclosure updates, preliminary hearings, or scheduling orders that could accelerate the process.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET
交易量
$52,562结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ETJustin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**The 82.9% market-implied probability of “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before the end of 2026 reflects the slow pace of the Canadian criminal justice system and the limited progress in his case to date.**
Aguiar, the Toronto-based dating coach and content creator also known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count of sexual assault tied to an alleged August 2024 incident. He has denied the allegation and his lawyer has stated he will contest it fully in court. Earlier charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, with the 2019 matter resolved via a peace bond.
Additional women have publicly shared unverified allegations in media reports, but these have not produced new formal charges. Sexual assault cases in Canada historically show low conviction rates, and court backlogs—exacerbated by pandemic delays—often extend timelines well beyond initial appearances. With the next procedural steps still unfolding and no trial date or plea developments reported as of mid-2026, traders see little realistic path to a conviction judgment before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff.
Key upcoming catalysts include any disclosure updates, preliminary hearings, or scheduling orders that could accelerate the process.
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$52,562结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET**The 82.9% market-implied probability of “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before the end of 2026 reflects the slow pace of the Canadian criminal justice system and the limited progress in his case to date.** Aguiar, the Toronto-based dating coach and content creator also known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count of sexual assault tied to an alleged August 2024 incident. He has denied the allegation and his lawyer has stated he will contest it fully in court. Earlier charges from 2019 and 2023 were withdrawn, with the 2019 matter resolved via a peace bond. Additional women have publicly shared unverified allegations in media reports, but these have not produced new formal charges. Sexual assault cases in Canada historically show low conviction rates, and court backlogs—exacerbated by pandemic delays—often extend timelines well beyond initial appearances. With the next procedural steps still unfolding and no trial date or plea developments reported as of mid-2026, traders see little realistic path to a conviction judgment before the December 31, 2026 resolution cutoff. Key upcoming catalysts include any disclosure updates, preliminary hearings, or scheduling orders that could accelerate the process.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题