Trader consensus prices the chance of sports prediction markets receiving formal IRS gambling tax classification before the April 2027 resolution window at just 9.5%. No revenue ruling, notice, or priority guidance plan item has emerged from Treasury or the IRS through September 2026, leaving characterization unsettled despite the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s 90% wagering-loss cap. CFTC event-contract rulemaking continues without tax-side resolution, while appellate courts remain split on whether sports outcome contracts constitute CEA swaps or state gambling. Absent active legislation or enforcement signals in recent months, the market reflects the low near-term probability of a definitive reclassification that would override prevailing capital-asset or Section 1256 reporting practices.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于10% 概率
$44,344 交易量
$44,344 交易量
2027-04-15
10% 概率
$44,344 交易量
$44,344 交易量
2027-04-15
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by April 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the IRS or U.S. Department of the Treasury publishes formal guidance classifying losses from CFTC-regulated sports event contracts as subject to the 90% loss cap under Section 165(d) of the Internal Revenue Code, as amended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, sports event contracts are contracts whose payoff is determined by the outcome, score, or statistical result of an athletic competition listed on a CFTC-designated contract market or swap execution facility.
Qualifying guidance must be published in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or the Federal Register as a Revenue Ruling, Revenue Procedure, IRS Notice, IRS Announcement, final or temporary Treasury Regulation, or proposed Treasury Regulation that remains published without withdrawal for at least 30 calendar days after its Federal Register publication date. Guidance qualifies if it expressly applies Section 165(d) to such contracts or classifies them as wagering transactions for federal income tax purposes. Guidance classifying sports event contracts as wagering solely for purposes of Section 4401, Section 6041, Section 3402(q), or other Code sections that do not bear on the deductibility of losses does not qualify. Non-qualifying actions include Private Letter Rulings, Chief Counsel Advice, Tax Court decisions, IRS official statements, Congressional testimony, and web-based publications not appearing in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or Federal Register. A final and non-appealable decision of the U.S. Supreme Court holding that CFTC-regulated sports event contracts are subject to Section 165(d) also qualifies for resolution.
This market will resolve to "No" if qualifying guidance is withdrawn, modified into non-qualifying form, or superseded by non-qualifying guidance before April 15, 2027; if federal legislation repeals Section 165(d) or exempts CFTC-regulated sports event contracts from its application; if federal legislation establishes a tax treatment for sports event contracts incompatible with Section 165(d) prior to qualifying guidance being issued; or if the CFTC prohibits the listing of sports event contracts on all CFTC-designated contract markets before any qualifying guidance is issued.
The resolution source for this market is the Internal Revenue Bulletin (irs.gov/irb) and the Federal Register (federalregister.gov).Trader consensus prices the chance of sports prediction markets receiving formal IRS gambling tax classification before the April 2027 resolution window at just 9.5%. No revenue ruling, notice, or priority guidance plan item has emerged from Treasury or the IRS through September 2026, leaving characterization unsettled despite the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s 90% wagering-loss cap. CFTC event-contract rulemaking continues without tax-side resolution, while appellate courts remain split on whether sports outcome contracts constitute CEA swaps or state gambling. Absent active legislation or enforcement signals in recent months, the market reflects the low near-term probability of a definitive reclassification that would override prevailing capital-asset or Section 1256 reporting practices.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by April 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the IRS or U.S. Department of the Treasury publishes formal guidance classifying losses from CFTC-regulated sports event contracts as subject to the 90% loss cap under Section 165(d) of the Internal Revenue Code, as amended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, sports event contracts are contracts whose payoff is determined by the outcome, score, or statistical result of an athletic competition listed on a CFTC-designated contract market or swap execution facility.
Qualifying guidance must be published in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or the Federal Register as a Revenue Ruling, Revenue Procedure, IRS Notice, IRS Announcement, final or temporary Treasury Regulation, or proposed Treasury Regulation that remains published without withdrawal for at least 30 calendar days after its Federal Register publication date. Guidance qualifies if it expressly applies Section 165(d) to such contracts or classifies them as wagering transactions for federal income tax purposes. Guidance classifying sports event contracts as wagering solely for purposes of Section 4401, Section 6041, Section 3402(q), or other Code sections that do not bear on the deductibility of losses does not qualify. Non-qualifying actions include Private Letter Rulings, Chief Counsel Advice, Tax Court decisions, IRS official statements, Congressional testimony, and web-based publications not appearing in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or Federal Register. A final and non-appealable decision of the U.S. Supreme Court holding that CFTC-regulated sports event contracts are subject to Section 165(d) also qualifies for resolution.
This market will resolve to "No" if qualifying guidance is withdrawn, modified into non-qualifying form, or superseded by non-qualifying guidance before April 15, 2027; if federal legislation repeals Section 165(d) or exempts CFTC-regulated sports event contracts from its application; if federal legislation establishes a tax treatment for sports event contracts incompatible with Section 165(d) prior to qualifying guidance being issued; or if the CFTC prohibits the listing of sports event contracts on all CFTC-designated contract markets before any qualifying guidance is issued.
The resolution source for this market is the Internal Revenue Bulletin (irs.gov/irb) and the Federal Register (federalregister.gov).
For purposes of this market, sports event contracts are contracts whose payoff is determined by the outcome, score, or statistical result of an athletic competition listed on a CFTC-designated contract market or swap execution facility.
Qualifying guidance must be published in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or the Federal Register as a Revenue Ruling, Revenue Procedure, IRS Notice, IRS Announcement, final or temporary Treasury Regulation, or proposed Treasury Regulation that remains published without withdrawal for at least 30 calendar days after its Federal Register publication date. Guidance qualifies if it expressly applies Section 165(d) to such contracts or classifies them as wagering transactions for federal income tax purposes. Guidance classifying sports event contracts as wagering solely for purposes of Section 4401, Section 6041, Section 3402(q), or other Code sections that do not bear on the deductibility of losses does not qualify. Non-qualifying actions include Private Letter Rulings, Chief Counsel Advice, Tax Court decisions, IRS official statements, Congressional testimony, and web-based publications not appearing in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or Federal Register. A final and non-appealable decision of the U.S. Supreme Court holding that CFTC-regulated sports event contracts are subject to Section 165(d) also qualifies for resolution.
This market will resolve to "No" if qualifying guidance is withdrawn, modified into non-qualifying form, or superseded by non-qualifying guidance before April 15, 2027; if federal legislation repeals Section 165(d) or exempts CFTC-regulated sports event contracts from its application; if federal legislation establishes a tax treatment for sports event contracts incompatible with Section 165(d) prior to qualifying guidance being issued; or if the CFTC prohibits the listing of sports event contracts on all CFTC-designated contract markets before any qualifying guidance is issued.
The resolution source for this market is the Internal Revenue Bulletin (irs.gov/irb) and the Federal Register (federalregister.gov).
市场开放时间： Jun 1, 2026, 1:47 PM ET
交易量
$44,344结束日期
2027-04-16市场开放时间
Jun 1, 2026, 1:47 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if, by April 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the IRS or U.S. Department of the Treasury publishes formal guidance classifying losses from CFTC-regulated sports event contracts as subject to the 90% loss cap under Section 165(d) of the Internal Revenue Code, as amended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, sports event contracts are contracts whose payoff is determined by the outcome, score, or statistical result of an athletic competition listed on a CFTC-designated contract market or swap execution facility.
Qualifying guidance must be published in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or the Federal Register as a Revenue Ruling, Revenue Procedure, IRS Notice, IRS Announcement, final or temporary Treasury Regulation, or proposed Treasury Regulation that remains published without withdrawal for at least 30 calendar days after its Federal Register publication date. Guidance qualifies if it expressly applies Section 165(d) to such contracts or classifies them as wagering transactions for federal income tax purposes. Guidance classifying sports event contracts as wagering solely for purposes of Section 4401, Section 6041, Section 3402(q), or other Code sections that do not bear on the deductibility of losses does not qualify. Non-qualifying actions include Private Letter Rulings, Chief Counsel Advice, Tax Court decisions, IRS official statements, Congressional testimony, and web-based publications not appearing in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or Federal Register. A final and non-appealable decision of the U.S. Supreme Court holding that CFTC-regulated sports event contracts are subject to Section 165(d) also qualifies for resolution.
This market will resolve to "No" if qualifying guidance is withdrawn, modified into non-qualifying form, or superseded by non-qualifying guidance before April 15, 2027; if federal legislation repeals Section 165(d) or exempts CFTC-regulated sports event contracts from its application; if federal legislation establishes a tax treatment for sports event contracts incompatible with Section 165(d) prior to qualifying guidance being issued; or if the CFTC prohibits the listing of sports event contracts on all CFTC-designated contract markets before any qualifying guidance is issued.
The resolution source for this market is the Internal Revenue Bulletin (irs.gov/irb) and the Federal Register (federalregister.gov).Trader consensus prices the chance of sports prediction markets receiving formal IRS gambling tax classification before the April 2027 resolution window at just 9.5%. No revenue ruling, notice, or priority guidance plan item has emerged from Treasury or the IRS through September 2026, leaving characterization unsettled despite the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s 90% wagering-loss cap. CFTC event-contract rulemaking continues without tax-side resolution, while appellate courts remain split on whether sports outcome contracts constitute CEA swaps or state gambling. Absent active legislation or enforcement signals in recent months, the market reflects the low near-term probability of a definitive reclassification that would override prevailing capital-asset or Section 1256 reporting practices.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by April 15, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the IRS or U.S. Department of the Treasury publishes formal guidance classifying losses from CFTC-regulated sports event contracts as subject to the 90% loss cap under Section 165(d) of the Internal Revenue Code, as amended by the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For purposes of this market, sports event contracts are contracts whose payoff is determined by the outcome, score, or statistical result of an athletic competition listed on a CFTC-designated contract market or swap execution facility.
Qualifying guidance must be published in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or the Federal Register as a Revenue Ruling, Revenue Procedure, IRS Notice, IRS Announcement, final or temporary Treasury Regulation, or proposed Treasury Regulation that remains published without withdrawal for at least 30 calendar days after its Federal Register publication date. Guidance qualifies if it expressly applies Section 165(d) to such contracts or classifies them as wagering transactions for federal income tax purposes. Guidance classifying sports event contracts as wagering solely for purposes of Section 4401, Section 6041, Section 3402(q), or other Code sections that do not bear on the deductibility of losses does not qualify. Non-qualifying actions include Private Letter Rulings, Chief Counsel Advice, Tax Court decisions, IRS official statements, Congressional testimony, and web-based publications not appearing in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or Federal Register. A final and non-appealable decision of the U.S. Supreme Court holding that CFTC-regulated sports event contracts are subject to Section 165(d) also qualifies for resolution.
This market will resolve to "No" if qualifying guidance is withdrawn, modified into non-qualifying form, or superseded by non-qualifying guidance before April 15, 2027; if federal legislation repeals Section 165(d) or exempts CFTC-regulated sports event contracts from its application; if federal legislation establishes a tax treatment for sports event contracts incompatible with Section 165(d) prior to qualifying guidance being issued; or if the CFTC prohibits the listing of sports event contracts on all CFTC-designated contract markets before any qualifying guidance is issued.
The resolution source for this market is the Internal Revenue Bulletin (irs.gov/irb) and the Federal Register (federalregister.gov).
For purposes of this market, sports event contracts are contracts whose payoff is determined by the outcome, score, or statistical result of an athletic competition listed on a CFTC-designated contract market or swap execution facility.
Qualifying guidance must be published in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or the Federal Register as a Revenue Ruling, Revenue Procedure, IRS Notice, IRS Announcement, final or temporary Treasury Regulation, or proposed Treasury Regulation that remains published without withdrawal for at least 30 calendar days after its Federal Register publication date. Guidance qualifies if it expressly applies Section 165(d) to such contracts or classifies them as wagering transactions for federal income tax purposes. Guidance classifying sports event contracts as wagering solely for purposes of Section 4401, Section 6041, Section 3402(q), or other Code sections that do not bear on the deductibility of losses does not qualify. Non-qualifying actions include Private Letter Rulings, Chief Counsel Advice, Tax Court decisions, IRS official statements, Congressional testimony, and web-based publications not appearing in the Internal Revenue Bulletin or Federal Register. A final and non-appealable decision of the U.S. Supreme Court holding that CFTC-regulated sports event contracts are subject to Section 165(d) also qualifies for resolution.
This market will resolve to "No" if qualifying guidance is withdrawn, modified into non-qualifying form, or superseded by non-qualifying guidance before April 15, 2027; if federal legislation repeals Section 165(d) or exempts CFTC-regulated sports event contracts from its application; if federal legislation establishes a tax treatment for sports event contracts incompatible with Section 165(d) prior to qualifying guidance being issued; or if the CFTC prohibits the listing of sports event contracts on all CFTC-designated contract markets before any qualifying guidance is issued.
The resolution source for this market is the Internal Revenue Bulletin (irs.gov/irb) and the Federal Register (federalregister.gov).
交易量
$44,344结束日期
2027-04-16市场开放时间
Jun 1, 2026, 1:47 PM ETTrader consensus prices the chance of sports prediction markets receiving formal IRS gambling tax classification before the April 2027 resolution window at just 9.5%. No revenue ruling, notice, or priority guidance plan item has emerged from Treasury or the IRS through September 2026, leaving characterization unsettled despite the 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act’s 90% wagering-loss cap. CFTC event-contract rulemaking continues without tax-side resolution, while appellate courts remain split on whether sports outcome contracts constitute CEA swaps or state gambling. Absent active legislation or enforcement signals in recent months, the market reflects the low near-term probability of a definitive reclassification that would override prevailing capital-asset or Section 1256 reporting practices.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题