No U.S. Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 commands roughly 75% implied probability on prediction markets, driven by the absence of any retirement announcements, health crises, or official statements from the nine sitting justices. The oldest members—Clarence Thomas, born 1948, and Samuel Alito, born 1950—have publicly signaled continued service through the year, including Alito’s August 2026 Wall Street Journal comments affirming another term. A June 2026 NPR report claiming Alito’s departure was quickly retracted, underscoring the lack of confirmed developments. With four months remaining and no scheduled events or legislative actions likely to alter the timeline before year-end, trader consensus reflects the historical pattern of strategic exits timed around presidential transitions or congressional shifts rather than unplanned mid-year vacancies.