Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors President Trump's approval rating falling in the 38.5–38.9% range at 74% implied probability, closely tracking recent national polling averages of 37–40% from trackers like the Silver Bulletin (net -19 as of May 13) and FiftyPlusOne (37% approve on May 13). Late April and early May surveys, including ABC News/Ipsos (37%), Pew (34%), and Fox News (42%), reflect steady low-30s to high-30s figures amid persistent disapproval of his handling of the ongoing Iran war—where Marist pegged approval at just 33%—and economic concerns like gas prices. A sharp 18-point drop among independents since May 2025, coupled with softening Republican strong approval, has anchored sentiment, with no major catalysts in the past week to suggest upward movement ahead of November midterms.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于38.5–38.9 71%
38.0–38.4 18.6%
39.0–39.4 3.0%
39.5–39.9 1.9%
$17,136 交易量
$17,136 交易量
2026-05-15
<38.0
<1%
38.0–38.4
21%
38.5–38.9
73%
39.0–39.4
3%
39.5–39.9
2%
40.0+
1%
38.5–38.9 71%
38.0–38.4 18.6%
39.0–39.4 3.0%
39.5–39.9 1.9%
$17,136 交易量
$17,136 交易量
2026-05-15
<38.0
$2,654 交易量
<1%
38.0–38.4
$3,526 交易量
21%
38.5–38.9
$4,243 交易量
73%
39.0–39.4
$3,172 交易量
3%
39.5–39.9
$2,247 交易量
2%
40.0+
$1,294 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 15, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors President Trump's approval rating falling in the 38.5–38.9% range at 74% implied probability, closely tracking recent national polling averages of 37–40% from trackers like the Silver Bulletin (net -19 as of May 13) and FiftyPlusOne (37% approve on May 13). Late April and early May surveys, including ABC News/Ipsos (37%), Pew (34%), and Fox News (42%), reflect steady low-30s to high-30s figures amid persistent disapproval of his handling of the ongoing Iran war—where Marist pegged approval at just 33%—and economic concerns like gas prices. A sharp 18-point drop among independents since May 2025, coupled with softening Republican strong approval, has anchored sentiment, with no major catalysts in the past week to suggest upward movement ahead of November midterms.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 15, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市场开放时间： May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ET
交易量
$17,136结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 15, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors President Trump's approval rating falling in the 38.5–38.9% range at 74% implied probability, closely tracking recent national polling averages of 37–40% from trackers like the Silver Bulletin (net -19 as of May 13) and FiftyPlusOne (37% approve on May 13). Late April and early May surveys, including ABC News/Ipsos (37%), Pew (34%), and Fox News (42%), reflect steady low-30s to high-30s figures amid persistent disapproval of his handling of the ongoing Iran war—where Marist pegged approval at just 33%—and economic concerns like gas prices. A sharp 18-point drop among independents since May 2025, coupled with softening Republican strong approval, has anchored sentiment, with no major catalysts in the past week to suggest upward movement ahead of November midterms.
This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on May 15, 2026.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$17,136结束日期
2026-05-15市场开放时间
May 8, 2026, 12:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors President Trump's approval rating falling in the 38.5–38.9% range at 74% implied probability, closely tracking recent national polling averages of 37–40% from trackers like the Silver Bulletin (net -19 as of May 13) and FiftyPlusOne (37% approve on May 13). Late April and early May surveys, including ABC News/Ipsos (37%), Pew (34%), and Fox News (42%), reflect steady low-30s to high-30s figures amid persistent disapproval of his handling of the ongoing Iran war—where Marist pegged approval at just 33%—and economic concerns like gas prices. A sharp 18-point drop among independents since May 2025, coupled with softening Republican strong approval, has anchored sentiment, with no major catalysts in the past week to suggest upward movement ahead of November midterms.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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