Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin’s narrow upset victory over 14-term incumbent Rep. John Larson at the May 11 Democratic state convention—securing the party endorsement by a slim margin on the second ballot—has fueled a tight race in the CT-01 Democratic primary, reflected in trader consensus pricing Larson at 40.5% and Bronin at 37.5% ahead of the August 11 contest. Larson’s incumbency advantages, including seniority on the House Ways and Means Committee, established name recognition, and a March internal poll showing his lead, maintain his edge despite Bronin’s fundraising momentum and generational appeal. State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest qualified for the ballot, while Ruth Fortune and Mark Stewart Greenstein trail. Public polls, key endorsements, or debates could tip the balance in this closely contested primary.