James Martin holds a modest edge in the FL-21 Democratic primary, set for August 18, 2026, with traders assigning him roughly 60% implied probability over Bernard Taylor. Martin, a Coast Guard Reserve lieutenant commander and former vice-presidential staffer, benefits from early fundraising momentum—including a large initial self-loan and national name recognition—while Taylor, a Palm Beach County firefighter-EMT, has matched or slightly exceeded Martin in total individual donations and secured endorsements from progressive groups. With no recent public polls available and both candidates directing attacks primarily at Republican incumbent Brian Mast rather than each other, the narrow spread reflects the closely matched profiles, limited name ID statewide, and the absence of major late developments that would shift voter preference in the final days. The outcome will determine the Democratic nominee in a solidly Republican-leaning district.