Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Moscow's August 28 high will likely fall between 17–20 °C under a building anticyclone, with variable cloud cover and light northeasterly winds limiting daytime heating while allowing modest radiational warming. Recent cool, showery conditions have kept surface temperatures below the 20.3 °C climatological average, but clearing skies and rising 850 hPa temperatures are expected to support modest recovery. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing, exact cloud timing, and subtle frontal positioning creates the tight 50 % probabilities across bins; minor shifts in these variables can easily move the daily maximum by 2–3 °C, sustaining uncertainty until the final model runs and observational data arrive on the 27th–28th.