The Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.75–4.00% amid a “strong” economy and September PCE inflation at 3.6% year-over-year has shaped recent 5-year Treasury yield movements, with the note trading near 4.72–4.85% by late October after touching highs above 5.05% earlier in the month. Robust Q3 GDP growth of 3.4% reinforced trader expectations for persistent price pressures, steepening the curve and lifting intermediate yields despite the pause, while markets price in an 85% probability of a December hike. The 5-year segment, sensitive to both policy expectations and term premium, has tracked the belly of the curve’s response to fiscal supply concerns and inflation data revisions. With October nearly complete, the next FOMC meeting on December 9 and any final October economic releases remain the key near-term catalysts for yield volatility.