Recent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to around 4.65% as of late August 2026, with markets pricing a meaningful chance of policy tightening by year-end. The Fed, holding the funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, has signaled greater focus on price stability under Chair Warsh, while three officials dissented in favor of an immediate hike at the July meeting. Treasury buybacks of longer-dated securities aim to ease supply pressure, yet term premia and real yields remain elevated. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, August PCE inflation, and labor-market data that could shift expectations for the terminal rate and influence how far yields compress before 2027.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড$225,470 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
3.9%
10%
3.8%
3%
3.7%
3%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
1%
3.0%
2%
2.0%
3%
1.0%
2%
$225,470 Vol.
3.9%
$44,198 Vol.
10%
3.8%
$41,328 Vol.
3%
3.7%
$27,425 Vol.
3%
3.6%
$5,589 Vol.
5%
3.5%
$33,121 Vol.
1%
3.0%
$917 Vol.
2%
2.0%
$564 Vol.
3%
1.0%
$40,570 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to around 4.65% as of late August 2026, with markets pricing a meaningful chance of policy tightening by year-end. The Fed, holding the funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, has signaled greater focus on price stability under Chair Warsh, while three officials dissented in favor of an immediate hike at the July meeting. Treasury buybacks of longer-dated securities aim to ease supply pressure, yet term premia and real yields remain elevated. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, August PCE inflation, and labor-market data that could shift expectations for the terminal rate and influence how far yields compress before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
ভলিউম
$225,470শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to around 4.65% as of late August 2026, with markets pricing a meaningful chance of policy tightening by year-end. The Fed, holding the funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, has signaled greater focus on price stability under Chair Warsh, while three officials dissented in favor of an immediate hike at the July meeting. Treasury buybacks of longer-dated securities aim to ease supply pressure, yet term premia and real yields remain elevated. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, August PCE inflation, and labor-market data that could shift expectations for the terminal rate and influence how far yields compress before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
ভলিউম
$225,470শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent inflation readings above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to around 4.65% as of late August 2026, with markets pricing a meaningful chance of policy tightening by year-end. The Fed, holding the funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, has signaled greater focus on price stability under Chair Warsh, while three officials dissented in favor of an immediate hike at the July meeting. Treasury buybacks of longer-dated securities aim to ease supply pressure, yet term premia and real yields remain elevated. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15–16 FOMC meeting, August PCE inflation, and labor-market data that could shift expectations for the terminal rate and influence how far yields compress before 2027.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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