Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and related facilities, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and damaging weaponization-related infrastructure. IAEA reporting shows no confirmed resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities, with inspectors facing restricted access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against developing nuclear weapons following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. U.S. intelligence estimates place any potential breakout timeline at nine to twelve months or longer amid these setbacks. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these verified military and diplomatic constraints, though undetected reconstruction efforts, external technical assistance, or a policy reversal under new leadership remain low-probability variables that could shift timelines within the resolution window.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
5% সম্ভাবনা
$246,408 Vol.
$246,408 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% সম্ভাবনা
$246,408 Vol.
$246,408 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and related facilities, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and damaging weaponization-related infrastructure. IAEA reporting shows no confirmed resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities, with inspectors facing restricted access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against developing nuclear weapons following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. U.S. intelligence estimates place any potential breakout timeline at nine to twelve months or longer amid these setbacks. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these verified military and diplomatic constraints, though undetected reconstruction efforts, external technical assistance, or a policy reversal under new leadership remain low-probability variables that could shift timelines within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
ভলিউম
$246,408শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and related facilities, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and damaging weaponization-related infrastructure. IAEA reporting shows no confirmed resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities, with inspectors facing restricted access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against developing nuclear weapons following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. U.S. intelligence estimates place any potential breakout timeline at nine to twelve months or longer amid these setbacks. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these verified military and diplomatic constraints, though undetected reconstruction efforts, external technical assistance, or a policy reversal under new leadership remain low-probability variables that could shift timelines within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$246,408শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely degraded Iran's uranium enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and related facilities, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and damaging weaponization-related infrastructure. IAEA reporting shows no confirmed resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities, with inspectors facing restricted access. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum reaffirmed Iran's commitment against developing nuclear weapons following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. U.S. intelligence estimates place any potential breakout timeline at nine to twelve months or longer amid these setbacks. Trader consensus at 95.5% for no test before 2027 reflects these verified military and diplomatic constraints, though undetected reconstruction efforts, external technical assistance, or a policy reversal under new leadership remain low-probability variables that could shift timelines within the resolution window.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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