Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan in 2025, followed by intensified joint operations in early 2026, have damaged key infrastructure and restricted IAEA verification of uranium stockpiles and centrifuge activity. A subsequent ceasefire and negotiations have further constrained visible progress toward weapons-grade material. Traders price the low probability of an Iranian nuclear device by December 2026 accordingly, reflecting sustained disruption to enrichment capacity and Iran's reported reaffirmation against weapon development. Realistic shifts could still arise from accelerated covert reconstruction, renewed escalation ending the pause in operations, or undisclosed stockpiles enabling a rapid breakout timeline.