Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 severely damaged key Iranian enrichment sites including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and halting enrichment activity. IAEA reports through mid-2026 confirm no resumption of enrichment, limited inspector access, and no verifiable progress toward weapons-grade material production, extending estimated breakout timelines to multiple years according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Traders reflect this consensus with a 95.5% probability on "No," viewing the physical and operational setbacks as durable barriers through 2026. Residual risks include undetected recovery of hidden centrifuges or materials, external technical assistance, or abrupt diplomatic shifts enabling rapid reconstitution, though none have materialized in recent months.