Recent Met Office and European model consensus points to a minimum temperature of 11°C in London overnight into May 17, driven by mild southwesterly airflow, persistent cloud cover limiting radiational cooling, and light winds that prevent sharp temperature drops. This setup aligns with climatological norms for mid-May, when average lows hover near 9–10°C but frequently reach 11°C under similar stable conditions. Traders have priced the 11°C outcome at 81.5% implied probability because latest guidance shows no significant model divergence or cold-air advection that would push readings lower. With resolution hinging on official overnight minimum readings from central London stations, any last-minute clearing skies could introduce minor downside risk, though current data favor the narrow 10–11°C band.