Forecast models from the Hong Kong Observatory and consensus runs currently point to a maximum of 25–28°C for May 17, with the market’s tightest probabilities clustered at 25°C and 26°C reflecting uncertainty over cloud cover and shower timing. An east-to-southeast flow of 4–5 on the Beaufort scale is expected to maintain moderate humidity while limiting strong solar heating, keeping daytime peaks near the May climatological average of 28°C. Recent model updates have slightly cooled the consensus by introducing a higher chance of patchy rain in the afternoon, which would cap the daily high if showers develop earlier than currently projected. Historical data show that similar wind patterns in mid-May produce maxima within a 2–3°C range, underscoring why traders assign meaningful probability to outcomes from 24°C to 28°C. Updated HKO guidance and new model runs expected overnight will likely narrow the distribution before markets close.