Traders have overwhelmingly backed a high temperature of 25°C for Tokyo on May 16, driven by stable atmospheric patterns and consistent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Current model runs show moderate southerly flow under clear skies, keeping daytime maxima aligned with seasonal norms near 23–25°C rather than triggering rapid warming. Official observations from central stations confirm no heat advection or urban heat-island amplification beyond expectations. This positioning reflects the wisdom of crowds incorporating real-time data releases. A modest northward shift in the subtropical ridge or an unexpected clear-sky radiative boost could still push readings to 26°C, though the latest ensemble guidance assigns low probability to such outcomes before sunset.