Recent Met Office and European ensemble model runs have converged on a London maximum of 13–15 °C for May 16, driven by persistent northerly flow that has advected cooler maritime air across southern England and suppressed the seasonal warming typical of mid-May. This positions 14 °C as the market favorite at 42.5 % implied probability, closely followed by 15 °C at 36.5 %, while higher outcomes remain discounted because forecast soundings show limited insolation under variable cloud cover and light winds. Traders are therefore focusing on the narrow spread between these two bins, which align with official guidance and leave little room for the 17 °C or warmer scenarios that would require a rapid shift to southerly flow. Resolution will hinge on the Met Office’s official Kew Gardens reading, with any final model adjustment before midday likely to decide between the leading contracts.