Recent ECMWF ensemble guidance and KNMI short-range forecasts indicate Amsterdam’s maximum temperature on May 18 will most likely settle between 14°C and 16°C, driven by a cool maritime air mass with moderate northwest winds and scattered showers that limit daytime warming. Variable cloud cover creates the primary uncertainty: any extended breaks in overcast skies could allow solar heating to push the peak toward 16°C, while persistent low-level stratus or rain would suppress readings near 14°C, well below the May climatological average of 17–18°C. Updated model runs and hourly observations from Amsterdam Airport Schiphol will refine the outcome as the 48-hour window approaches.