Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts project Seoul's May 17 high near 25–26°C under mostly clear skies, sustained by a high-pressure ridge that has delivered a warm surge with recent daily peaks of 27–30°C. This positions the 24°C outcome as the market leader while keeping 26°C-or-higher nearly tied, as subtle differences in afternoon insolation, boundary-layer mixing, and minor model spreads around 1–2°C separate the bins. Late-spring climatology shows typical highs climbing toward 24°C by mid-May, making the current ridge-enhanced warmth an above-average but plausible deviation without extreme heat advection. Updated KMA guidance and any overnight model runs will refine these thresholds ahead of official observation.