**Current forecasts from multiple models (including GFS) point to a minimum temperature in Paris on September 17, 2026, most likely between 11–14°C, with 12°C emerging as the modal outcome.** This aligns closely with the market’s implied probabilities, where 12°C leads at 46.5%, followed by 13°C (26.0%) and 11°C (24.5%). Key drivers include the seasonal transition toward autumn, with climatological average lows near 11.4°C, combined with expected overnight conditions of light winds, variable to increasing cloud cover, and possible light showers that limit radiative cooling. Model runs show highs around 21–23°C during the day moderating to overnight lows in the low-to-mid 12°C range, consistent with recent ensemble guidance and historical analogs for the date. No strong cold advection or clear-sky radiative setup is indicated that would push temperatures notably lower. Traders appear to be weighting the tight clustering of near-term model output and the absence of significant forecast shifts in the past 24–48 hours. Upcoming updates from agencies such as Météo-France or refined high-resolution runs will be the primary near-term catalysts for any probability adjustments before resolution.