The U.S.-Saudi Section 123 nuclear cooperation agreement was signed in July 2026, yet it remains far from entering into force. Congressional review under the Atomic Energy Act is still pending, with the administration not having submitted the required text or nonproliferation assessment. President Trump has publicly conditioned further progress on Saudi normalization with Israel via the Abraham Accords, creating additional diplomatic and procedural hurdles. Nonproliferation concerns over enrichment, reprocessing, and safeguards standards have also drawn bipartisan scrutiny on Capitol Hill, where a 90-day review period could extend amid competing priorities. These barriers, combined with the compressed timeline remaining in 2026, underpin traders’ 76% probability that the deal will not take effect before year-end.