The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict remains the dominant barrier to readmission, as G7 leaders at the June 2026 Évian summit reaffirmed commitments to strengthen sanctions on Russian energy exports and provide additional military support to Kyiv. All seven members must reach consensus for any invitation, and recent joint statements emphasize territorial integrity and economic pressure rather than diplomatic reintegration. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in December 2025 that Moscow has no interest in returning, citing the group's diminished global economic weight. Traders assign a 98.4% probability to "No" by December 31, 2026, reflecting these entrenched positions and the absence of qualifying concessions or formal overtures. A rapid, verifiable Ukraine settlement acceptable to G7 capitals, combined with explicit invitations and Russian acceptance, could still shift the outcome in the limited remaining window, though such developments lack current momentum.