Recent soft September jobs data, with payrolls rising just 29,000 against 90,000 expectations and unemployment ticking to 4.2%, have sharply reduced October FOMC rate-hike odds to around 20%, easing pressure on Treasury yields near 5.3% and supporting risk assets. The S&P 500 closed near 7,723 on October 2 after a modest weekly decline, trading below its record near 7,800 amid mixed inflation signals and elevated oil prices from geopolitical tensions. Traders will focus on the October 7 FOMC minutes, ISM services PMI, and early Q3 earnings from names like PepsiCo for directional cues, with consensus expecting robust 29% year-over-year earnings growth. Market-implied odds reflect a cautious balance between cooling labor conditions and persistent price pressures.
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